I've been working on this for a little bit. I wanted to do two, one before the Combine and one after. This one is now influenced by the Combine, and FA starts on Tuesday/Thursday, so I probably won't do another one. I'm also still watching a lot of players that I haven't watched yet, so some of my rankings are based on my own grades and general consensus from other evaluators, including some here.
I'll add that my mock drafts for my big mocks typically don't include trades, but my preference would be to trade out of #15. I don't really like the way the board is shaping up, and unless some QBs and RBs (and maybe John Ross??) go ahead of our pick, the very best defensive players will be gone. In the spoiler tag is my mock 1-14, just so you know.
Colts cap standing: 2017 cap of $167m, rollover of $6.6m from 2016 = adjusted cap of $173.6m. As of today, Colts have committed $114m, cap space of ~$59m
Releases: Arthur Jones, saves $5.15m cap space
New cap position: $109m committed, cap space of ~$64m
Jack Doyle, four years, $23.5m (2017 cap hit $5m, 2018 cap hit $5.5m)
Erik Walden, three years, $18m (2017 cap hit $5m, 2018 cap hit $6m)
Robert Turbin, two years, $5m (2017 cap hit $2m, 2018 cap hit $3m)
Zach Kerr, RFA, one year, $1.8m
Quan Bray, ERFA, one year, $0.615m
Eric Swoope, ERFA, one year, $0.54m
Jon Harrison, Josh McNary, Hugh Thornton, Jordan Todman, Chris Carter, Darius Butler, Trent Cole, Mike Adams, not retained
Donte Moncrief, four year extension, $36m new money (five years, $7.5m/avg), (2017 cap hit $5.3m, 2018 cap hit $6.2m)
Jack Mewhort, four year extension, $27.9m new money (five years, $5.8m/avg), (2017 cap hit $4m, 2018 cap hit $4.8m)
> Added $21.2m to 2017 cap (added $25.5m to 2018 cap, none guaranteed)
>> New cap position in 2017 -- $130.2m committed, remaining cap space of $43.4m (committed ~$122m in 2018)
Free agent additions:
Bennie Logan, five years, $40m (2017 cap hit $7m, 2018 cap hit $7.5m, $11m cash); starting NT/1-tech, great run stuffer, has some ability to shoot upfield, great interior anchor (market value calc, link, link)
John Simon, four years, $20m (2017 cap hit $4m, 2018 cap hit $5m, $7m cash); starting caliber OLB, not a great pass rusher but plays solid on the edge, had some big games in 2016, and is young at 27; maybe overpaying a little bit, but not quibbling in a weird market
Jarvis Jones, two years, $5m (2017/2018 cap hit $2.5m, $2.5m cash); young player who hasn't lived up to first round status, has athleticism and ability to be Rush, would rotate as backup edge defender, if he has a good year he's still locked down, no guarantees in Year 2
Kayvon Webster, three years, $11.8m (2017 cap hit $3.4m, 2018 cap hit $4m, $4.2m cash); another young player, never been a starter, athletic ability to play outside corner, mentality to play safety, standout special teamer (market value calc)
Tim Lelito, three years, $7.2m (2017 cap hit $2.2m, 2018 cap hit $2.4m, $2.6m cash); veteran lineman who can play guard, has started at multiple positions in the NFL, could start at RG
> Added $19.1m in 2017, $21.4m in 2018 ($7.5m guaranteed)
>> New cap position in 2017 -- $149.3m committed, remaining cap space of $24.3m (committed ~$143.4m in 2018)
1/15 -- Derek Barnett, Tennessee, edge/OLB, Rush backer in the Colts scheme, can be a very good pass rusher, compares to some 2nd tier pass rushers in the league right now, I'm not thrilled with his athleticism but he ran a great 3 cone, more importantly he's a proven producer in college, probably the surest thing outside the top 3 in the draft, high floor player, he has more bend than I initially thought; I was torn between him and Charlton, but ultimately Barnett being a surer thing vs Charlton's greater explosiveness and higher ceiling won me over
2/46 -- Gareon Conley, Ohio State, CB, can play both sides and in the slot, great ball skills and gets up to contest, physical in run support, good size and play speed, future starter; this was going to be Hasson Reddick before the Combine, because consensus was he was a second rounder even though I thought he was a top 30 player, now it's pretty obvious that consensus was wrong and he'll be gone well before #46
3/80 -- Justin Evans, Texas A&M, FS, has the awareness and range to play deep coverage, a physical player and playmaker, great production, lacks discipline at times
4/122 -- Wayne Gallman, Clemson, RB, tough and physical runner, competitive, has good body control and balance, decent acceleration, not elite open field speed, good production in the passing game
4/144 -- Alex Anzalone, Florida, ILB, rangy, physical, athletic off ball backer who was a high level recruit and on a path to being the next big thing, can play WILB in our system, his collegiate career was thrown off by injury, but he should be healthy now, if not for injury he'd be a top 50 player, IMO
5/158 -- Jon Toth, Kentucky, C/G, length to play guard, technically sound, good awareness, stays engaged once he's blocking, can get stronger to finish better
6/200 -- Ryan Switzer, North Carolina, WR, super productive, "quicker than fast," technically sound, good hands, secure punt returner, sorry to make the obvious small white receiver comparison but he's Wes Welker Jr.
> Added ~$6.2m to 2017 cap, $7.4m to 2018 cap
>> New cap position in 2017 -- $155.5m committed, remaining cap space of $18.1m (committed $150.8m in 2018)
Depth chart (draft picks in bold, FA additions in italics)
QB: Luck, Tolzien, Morris
RB: Gore, Turbin, Gallman, Ferguson
WR: Hilton, Moncrief, Dorsett, Rogers, Switzer, Bray, etc.,
TE: Allen, Doyle, Swoope
OL: AC, Mewhort, Kelly, Lelito, Clark, Haeg, Good, Toth, Reitz, Blythe, etc.,
DL: Logan, Anderson, Langford, Ridgeway, McGill, Parry, Kerr, etc.
Edge: Walden, Simon, Barnett, Jones, Ayers, Maggitt, etc.,
ILB: Jackson, Morrison, Anzalone, etc., (Geathers dime role)
CB: Davis, Robinson, Webster, Conley, Melvin, James, Morris, Milton, etc.
S: Green, Geathers, Evans, Farley, etc.,
Full roster, plenty of competition, I think some veterans might not make the roster, and we're only carrying two QBs. We could break camp with around $20m cap space, and I have ~$151m committed in 2018 vs a conservative projected cap of $177m. Only FA I would seriously consider re-signing in 2018 is Vontae Davis.
Not every need is met to my satisfaction, which no one should expect. But I think this roster is a jump start for the team in 2017 and can get back to the playoffs. And believe it or not, I really like all six draft picks and think they'd stick with the team in 2018. Still need a punter/KOS, which I would think is a UDFA.