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It depends on how good AR will be, if he is good we can win 11 with the help of another great player, we won 9 with Minshew, should have been 10. 

Gotta have a trade partner.Big ? Is would Arizona trade back that far knowing they’re gonna miss out on one of those top 3 Wr’s.I would also call New England and Los Angeles too.I don’t see MHJ getting past the 4th pick unless a Minnesota or Denver trades up for one of those top QB’s.I also don’t see the Giants if they stay put at 6 not taking Nabors I think that’s who they got they’re eyes on with that pick.

I think this probably isn't an objective viewpoint. I think you want fireworks, and you're an eternal optimist. Nothing wrong with that, but I think a more practical viewpoint is to acknowledge that taking huge chances isn't exactly a recipe for success. (You're going to point to examples that worked out; I'm going to counter with twice as many that failed.)   The bolded especially. First, it seems like you chose 11 games because you feel like that's the target to keep up with the Texans. Second, I don't think the Colts are one player away from keeping up with the top tier of the AFC. I think a lot has to go right for the Colts to be in the mix with the Chiefs, etc. I said at the beginning of the offseason, I think we're still one draft class away from being in those discussions.   But if you can talk yourself into one guy being the answer, just one playmaker holds the key for the Colts to be in contention, then yeah, identify your favorite prospect and bang the table for the Colts to do whatever they have to to get that player. That would be awesome for us. But I think the reason Ballard doesn't do that is because it's flawed team building (historically speaking), not because he's afraid.. You can promise steak dinners based on your hunches, but that's not exactly how I want the GM to make decisions.