Greg Cosell Of Nfl Films On Luck And Griffin

[Dan]

An interesting take offering more to the debate than "mobility and arm strength rarara"

http://nflfilms.nfl....ot-always-luck/

Cosell Talks: It’s Not Always Luck

by Greg Cosell

When evaluating college players, and projecting them to the NFL, I often feel as if I can never watch enough snaps, enough throws, enough games to reach a conclusion with which I am comfortable. This is particularly true of quarterbacks.

Which brings me to Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III. Before I began my film study I had heard that Luck was the most NFL-ready quarterback to come out since Peyton Manning in 1998. The son of a former college and NFL quarterback, an Academic All-American and well-schooled in a pro-style offense at Stanford, Luck was being called a day one NFL starter and a great player. In many ways, it was pre-ordained.

Griffin’s rise appeared more meteoric. Although he started as a true freshman in 2008, it really wasn’t until this past season that folks celebrated the shining star that was RGIII. While Luck was always steady and constant, RGIII was spectacular and breathtaking. Different players in different offenses asked to do different things.

I have watched 5 games of both Luck and Griffin, all from their final collegiate season. Is that enough? Some might say yes, others no. Here’s what I saw. Luck ran a very controlled and condensed offense that featured multiple tight end personnel and a high percentage of compressed formations. He had a lot of freedom at the line of scrimmage to call plays and make adjustments based on defensive fronts and coverages. That’s an essential attribute as he transitions to the NFL, one that has dramatically increased in importance in the last number of years with the complexity and sophistication of defenses. There’s no question Luck is well ahead of the learning curve in that area.

Luck was an economical player who was at his best as a timing and rhythm, short to intermediate passer. 3 and 5 step drops, quick throws. He primarily made efficient throws to open receivers. The deeper throws were what we call shot plays, primarily with play action, specifically designed to attack an anticipated coverage based on field position, down and distance, personnel and formation. On those plays, the receiver was wide open. They were not difficult passes.

Overall, Luck was not asked to make many tough throws at the intermediate and deeper levels. I did not see those. I will not say he can’t make them, but based on the 5 games I evaluated it’s a projection. In addition, Luck had a tendency to lift his back foot off the ground before releasing the ball. That prevented him from driving through his throws and at times negatively impacted his velocity and accuracy. He would lean over his front foot and push the ball. That can be corrected with coaching and repetition, but it’s a concern that must be addressed.

Luck was not a special passer based on film study. He is not the same kind of arm talent as Matthew Stafford or Cam Newton. While charting Luck, I was compelled to reflect on Manning. Was Manning a special passer coming out of Tennessee? Most would probably say no. It raises the question: what is the connection between arm talent and high football IQ as it relates to NFL success? We know where it led with Manning. Also remember Peyton’s arm strength increased as played in the NFL.

Griffin predominantly ran a shotgun spread offense with 1 back and 4 wide receivers. What immediately jumped out was arm strength. He had a very compact and easy delivery with natural velocity. There was a snap to his throws. Many disagree, but in more than 20 years of watching NFL game film, I am a firm believer that arm strength, or put another way, the ability to make tight throws into small windows down the field, is critical. Can you be a top level quarterback without it? Yes, but then you must be special in other areas.

Griffin, for a power thrower, was consistently accurate. The better term for accuracy is ball location. That’s what allows receivers to run after the catch. Griffin excelled in that area, and just as important, he threw with touch on the shorter crossing routes. Short throws for big gains, especially to Kendall Wright, were a feature of the Baylor passing game.

Two other traits really impressed me in evaluating Griffin. The first was his patience and composure in the pocket. He did not move when the bodies started closing it down. He threw effectively out of what we call a “muddied” pocket”. He did not need much functional space to deliver the ball with velocity and distance. Surprisingly, in my 5 game breakdown of Luck, he exhibited a tendency to move too quickly, to leave the pocket too early. The result was often a positive because of his athleticism and ability to throw on the run, but I am very anxious to chart this element of his game in the NFL.

The second characteristic of Griffin’s play that stood out, and projects very well to the NFL, was his ability to throw from different platforms, or more descriptively, arm angles, and remain accurate. It’s especially important given his 6’3” height, an inch or two shorter than would be considered ideal for an NFL quarterback. I’m certainly not suggesting Griffin is the equal of Aaron Rodgers at this point, but that attribute has helped elevate Rodgers to elite status.

A complete breakdown of both Griffin’s and Luck’s play would demand more space than allowable, but here are some final thoughts based solely on film study. Luck, despite his freedom at the line of scrimmage, was managed and manipulated by his offense more than Griffin was in his spread scheme. Griffin threw an excellent deep ball, with trajectory, touch and accuracy. Luck played with an efficiency and continuity that was evident snap after snap. Griffin, despite taking a high percentage of snaps from the shotgun, showed the ability to execute the play action pass game from under center. Luck was very efficient in the play action and boot action pass game. I would describe Luck as a short to intermediate touch and timing passer off straight drop backs, and a deep ball thrower off play action.

The bottom line in my 5 game film evaluation: Griffin is a superior arm talent and natural passer than Luck. Will he be a better NFL quarterback? We’ll find out soon enough.

Thoughts? Opinions?

[Deano1818]

I think that they are both going to be fantastic quarterbacks in the NFL.

They both have different styles and strengths

In my book, you have to go with someone who has excelled in a pro style offense

That experience between the 2 is the biggest difference, once you tie in the other talents.

I think RGIII will get there, but it will be a learning curve

Also...... There have been a huge pile of spread offense QBs(like RGIII has run) that were incrediblle in college

Drafted in the top 5picks...... and absolutely bombed when they played on Sundays

Luck is the one

[Jay305]

Very nice Dan the Luck army will now come in and say Greg Cosell doesnt know what hes talking about. I've been comparing RG3 to Aaron Rodgers this whole time but thats irrelevant. I think we have the perfect OC for either qb so we will be ok. Alot of Big Bens game earlier in his career is how I see them using Luck. If by some miracle they do pick RG3 the offense will be more like the recent Steelers offense.

[GrizzColt]

Luck is the one who looks like Aaron Rodgers. A bigger version of Aaron Rodgers. Luck is faster than Rodger's 40, also. Btw, nobody has bothered to report whether Griffin can even throw the ball 76 yards. I'm gonna go out on a limb and suggest that he CANNOT throw the ball 80 yards, so therefore at best, he can only throw the ball 1-4 yards further than Luck. Luck just chooses not to rifle the ball, when there is no doubt he can.

[Chris_21]

Greg Cosell is a pretty respected person when it comes to evaluating talent. I have believed for a long time that Luck was the 2nd coming and although I still feel that way, RG3 might not be far behind if not better.

Regardless, several analysts like RG3 over Luck. Should be interesting to see how both do.

[GrizzColt]

McShay likes Luck over RG3 and says why.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/blog/_/name/nfl_draft/id/7727026/andrew-luck-was-good-expected-pro-day-workout

One thing in particular that stood out was Luck's elite ball placement. On the 45 scripted throws that could be considered accurate, all were either perfectly placed or within inches of being perfect. He was throwing to where his receivers needed to be, and they were following the ball rather than Luck following their route and throwing to the target. In a game scenario you would have said he was throwing his receivers open.

For example, on a rollout toward the sideline to his left, Luck threw a ball to TE Coby Fleener that was low and away, forcing Fleener to go down and get it, and that was no accident. In live action it would have been away from a trailing defender in a place where only Fleener could make the catch.

That consistency is one of the things that separated Luck's workout from that of Baylor'sRobert Griffin III a day earlier. Griffin threw the ball accurately for the vast majority of his workout Wednesday, but he missed within the strike zone more often. He had a dozen or so throws that could be characterized that way, and while he was consistently hitting his targets, Griffin was not always on the bull's-eye like Luck.

In all fairness, Griffin brings more "wow" factor to the table, which was evident in his workout. He snaps the ball off quicker, his ball travels faster and with more RPMs -- if Luck's zip is an 8 out of 10, Griffin has an 8.5 or 9 -- and Griffin is clearly the more explosive athlete. However, Luck showed much better ability to change the velocity of his throws, which is the case when studying these two on tape.

Also, the throws Luck made under pressure included a variety of ways to simulate the pass rush, showing his ability to move his eyes, adjust and reset his feet, which were quicker than some give him credit for.

Finally, Luck aimed to answer critics who raise those arm-strength issues, and he purposely threw all 48 passes into the wind. He finished the session by turning with the wind at his back and uncorking a pass that covered 75 yards in the air. Whether he'll admit it publicly or not, that throw was Luck's way of letting everyone know he heard the criticisms during the season, when he was simply making the throws necessary to allow his receivers to make plays, and closing the book on that issue.

There has been something of a groundswell over the past day or so in terms of support for Griffin as the No. 1 overall pick -- and in many other years he would be -- but his workout reinforced my feeling that Luck is the right choice for the Indianapolis Colts.

Both are elite in terms of skill level and mental makeup, and while they get it done in different ways, Luck and Griffin are clearly the top two prospects in this year's class. This is the first time since the Peyton Manning-Ryan Leaf and Tim Couch-Donovan McNabb debates in 1998 and 1999 that we have two quarterbacks so firmly entrenched atop the board.

Luck and Griffin are both worthy of the top pick, but the problem for Griffin is that he happens to be in the same class as a once-in-a-generation prospect. Their transitions to the NFL will be different, with Luck coming from a pro-style attack and facing fewer adjustments, but Griffin is a perfect fit for the system of the Washington Redskins and the way coach Mike Shanahan teaches it, so things should work out for everyone.

[Colt-in-Jax]

RJIII Played in a conference where defense wasn't one of the things that OC's worried about.

[Chris_21]

Actually last season, RG3 faced 5 of the top 50 defenses and Luck 2

[ReMeDy]

Griffin threw the ball accurately for the vast majority of his workout Wednesday, but he missed within the strike zone more often. He had a dozen or so throws that could be characterized that way, and while he was consistently hitting his targets, Griffin was not always on the bull's-eye like Luck.

And it's worth noting RGIII was throwing indoors.

[Malakai432]

Well it seems like Steve Young likes Luck and thinks he will be taken first when talking to him about replacing Manning after pro-day. I'll have to go with Steve's view. RGiii is good but Luck pretty much solidified himself as the #1 pick unless Irsay pulls a shocker. I honestly just don't see the comparison as some think. Seems like the consensus overall is Luck is the sure fire #1 however I do wish RGiii success and wish him the best. IF for some reason RGiii is a Colt obviously I would welcome him with open arms after a couple days of being livid.

And it's worth noting RGIII was throwing indoors.

And being chased around by a broom to simulate pressure. I personally was much more impressed by Lucks pro-day.

[ReMeDy]

And being chased around by a broom to simulate pressure. I personally was much more impressed by Lucks pro-day.

Plus, the indoor field RGIII was throwing at was the same place he proposed to his girlfriend, so he was already familiar with the facility, turf, etc. Basically, RGIII did not take any liberties to simulate any pressure on himself whatsoever. Andrew Luck, however, seemingly went out of his way to prove doubters wrong by throwing outside, against a strong wind (he could have called off the Pro Day or thrown with the wind, if he wanted, but did not), and yea, as you mentioned, with a broom attacking him. He even hurled that big deep bomb down-field as a silent protest to those questioning his arm strength.

Luck demonstrated an intangible of courage RGIII did not. No doubt the Colts organization will add this to their draft conversations.

[Malakai432]

Plus, the indoor field RGIII was throwing at was the same place he proposed to his girlfriend, so he was already familiar with the facility. RGIII did not take any liberties to simulate any pressure on himself whatsoever. Andrew Luck did by throwing outside, against the wind, and yea, as you mentioned, with a broom attacking him.

FEAR THE BROOM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[John Dee]

Actually last season, RG3 faced 5 of the top 50 defenses and Luck 2

And that's not saying much at all... outside of the top 2 (which according to FBS team total D are all SEC teams Ala, and LS)

http://content.usatoday.com/sportsdata/football/ncaaf/stats/team-total-defense

These 2 teams were DOMINANT... the rest .... pretty bad really.

Luck and RG3 played 2 common opponents Washington who Stanford destroyed, and Baylor won a close one.

And Okie St. who Stanford lost a close one and Baylor got destroyed....

Take out of it what you will. But Luck was AWESOME against OSU.. RG3 looked average at best.

[Bleedin Blue]

Also...... There have been a huge pile of spread offense QBs(like RGIII has run) that were incrediblle in college Drafted in the top 5picks...... and absolutely bombed when they played on Sundays Luck is the one

This is what bothers me the most with selecting RG III for the Colts. History has not shown many spread-offense QB's that have excelled in the NFL. That's not to say that RGIII won't but playing against defenses in the NFL means you won't always have 4 receivers and your target known at the time of the snap. RGIII will have to show that he can go through his progressions to find the open man.

[pacolts56]

Very nice Dan the Luck army will now come in and say Greg Cosell doesnt know what hes talking about. I've been comparing RG3 to Aaron Rodgers this whole time but thats irrelevant. I think we have the perfect OC for either qb so we will be ok. Alot of Big Bens game earlier in his career is how I see them using Luck. If by some miracle they do pick RG3 the offense will be more like the recent Steelers offense.

I'm not gonna trash Greg Cosell but I also don't think its nit-picking to point out a slight problem I see with Cosell's column.... not only because I prefer Andrew Luck, but for a couple of the reasons why I prefer him.

By only evaluating Luck's final season Cosell offers a skewed assessment.... because the array of WR weapons that Luck used much more heavily than TEs a season earlier is very significant.

Cosell himself questioned if his evaluation sample was adequate, and considering he works for NFL Films and probably has access to film clear back to Luck's high school days.... and assuming he was aware of the changes in Stanford's WR corps between Luck's final two seasons.... then no, it wasn't adequate.

Because TE's caught only 68 of Luck's 263 completions in 2010, then by necessity TEs caught 120, almost double 2010, of Luck's 288 completions in 2011 in what Cosell called a "compressed offense". I would argue that two key WR departures and a fragile Chris Owusu will tend to "compress" your offense. That warranted deeper examination of Luck's prior year, and Cosell didn't bother.

Bottom line is that Luck adjusted from the graduations of impressive Seahawks rookie WR Doug Baldwin and also his 2nd most targeted WR in 2010, Ryan Whalen... yet achieved equally impressive TD/yardage production in 2011 with as TE-heavy and pass/run balanced an offense as any of us can remember. And he did so while calling many of the plays himself.... which is where he gains clear separation from RGIII.

No disrespect to Griffin, but I'll take that over a QB coming out of a "spread" system with a 10-page playbook anyday.

For where the Colts sit right now in the complete overhaul of our roster.... Andrew Luck is the slam dunk choice IMO.

[UndecidedFrog]

I'm not gonna trash Greg Cosell but I also don't think its nit-picking to point out a slight problem I see with Cosell's column.... not only because I prefer Andrew Luck, but for a couple of the reasons why I prefer him.

By only evaluating Luck's final season Cosell offers a skewed assessment.... because the array of WR weapons that Luck used much more heavily than TEs a season earlier is very significant.

Cosell himself questioned if his evaluation sample was adequate, and considering he works for NFL Films and probably has access to film clear back to Luck's high school days.... and assuming he was aware of the changes in Stanford's WR corps between Luck's final two seasons.... then no, it wasn't adequate.

Because TE's caught only 68 of Luck's 263 completions in 2010, then by necessity TEs caught 120, almost double 2010, of Luck's 288 completions in 2011 in what Cosell called a "compressed offense". I would argue that two key WR departures and a fragile Chris Owusu will tend to "compress" your offense. That warranted deeper examination of Luck's prior year, and Cosell didn't bother.

Bottom line is that Luck adjusted from the graduations of impressive Seahawks rookie WR Doug Baldwin and also his 2nd most targeted WR in 2010, Ryan Whalen... yet achieved equally impressive TD/yardage production in 2011 with as TE-heavy and pass/run balanced an offense as any of us can remember. And he did so while calling many of the plays himself.... which is where he gains clear separation from RGIII.

No disrespect to Griffin, but I'll take that over a QB coming out of a "spread" system with a 10-page playbook anyday.

For where the Colts sit right now in the complete overhaul of our roster.... Andrew Luck is the slam dunk choice IMO.

Luck also had command of all 350+ plays in the Stanford playbook. So many plays that it needed not only his wristband with flap over page, but also his center's wristband with flap over page.

[doogansquest]

Thoughts? Opinions?

Great post.

To many, you are blaspheming, however, because Luck is only QB they would take. They would take him, not because they've studied his film (or Griffin's, for that matter), but because everyone has told them he's the greatest thing since whoever came out of college some decades ago.

Now we are starting to see more and more analysis of the two, and there are a lot of experts switching sides, as it were. Not because it's hip or trendy, but because on tape, Griffin's passes look more like NFL passes than do Luck's. Plain, and simple. Luck's suppose "command" of a massive offense was really a controlled setting. It sprang forth out of limited formations where the openings were made FOR him by the schematic designs of the playbook. He was simply making an adjustment based on what the defense was doing. But please understand, people: he was not doing what Peyton Manning does. There was no psychological warfare, and he hardly ever punished a defense in a way that an NFL coach would lose sleep over.

Griffin has better arm strength, better accuracy, and better touch. Griffin could deliver passes far better outside of the numbers, which is more important to an NFL offense than simply being able to call audibles. Maybe the decision making could go to Luck, but Griffin actually made fewer mistakes in the big moments from the film I've watched. I'm just trying to maintain my confidence in the pick, because Irsay is going to snap-grab Luck without doing the work.

I wouldn't take the few things Luck offers over what Griffin offers, however. If decision making and command of an offense (though the latter trait is subjective) are most important, Blaine Gabbert would have been a better choice than Cam Newton.

I'm okay with either player, but my opinion has changed to one in which I do believe RGIII will be a better professional QB than Andrew Luck. He already looks better, and also looks to have a better upside.

[Dan]

Great post.

To many, you are blaspheming, however, because Luck is only QB they would take. They would take him, not because they've studied his film (or Griffin's, for that matter), but because everyone has told them he's the greatest thing since whoever came out of college some decades ago.

Now we are starting to see more and more analysis of the two, and there are a lot of experts switching sides, as it were. Not because it's hip or trendy, but because on tape, Griffin's passes look more like NFL passes than do Luck's. Plain, and simple. Luck's suppose "command" of a massive offense was really a controlled setting. It sprang forth out of limited formations where the openings were made FOR him by the schematic designs of the playbook. He was simply making an adjustment based on what the defense was doing. But please understand, people: he was not doing what Peyton Manning does. There was no psychological warfare, and he hardly ever punished a defense in a way that an NFL coach would lose sleep over.

Griffin has better arm strength, better accuracy, and better touch. Griffin could deliver passes far better outside of the numbers, which is more important to an NFL offense than simply being able to call audibles. Maybe the decision making could go to Luck, but Griffin actually made fewer mistakes in the big moments from the film I've watched. I'm just trying to maintain my confidence in the pick, because Irsay is going to snap-grab Luck without doing the work.

I wouldn't take the few things Luck offers over what Griffin offers, however. If decision making and command of an offense (though the latter trait is subjective) are most important, Blaine Gabbert would have been a better choice than Cam Newton.

I'm okay with either player, but my opinion has changed to one in which I do believe RGIII will be a better professional QB than Andrew Luck. He already looks better, and also looks to have a better upside.

But the same could be said of JaMarcus Russell coming out of college. Fact is, based on college career, he was a better passer than Peyton Manning, however Peyton Manning was not by any means a bad passer (just like Luck) and had a very similar offense understanding like Luck does - whereas Russell clearly had none. That isn't to say Griffin has none, we've just not seen it yet.

Truth be told, I don't know which would be the better option, I posted this because I thought it was a very interesting take rather than because it directly reflected my views. I'm leaning towards Luck more than Griffin, mainly because of his Manning-esque playcalling (though as you said, this directive would lead to Gabbert going ahead of Newton), and I also much prefer Luck to Griffin personality wise based on interviews. It's a very interesting situation. Whichever way we go, we've got a very promising talent.

[bahhummbug]

Lets all be real only time will tell we can sit here and guess forever. But better people have crumbled under nfl pressures we will all know in a few years but except for a carreer ending injury i expect both to do great things in the NFL.

[ConBro]

The thing I like about Luck is that he completed something like 48 of 50 passes outdoors in the wind and cold. RG3 also had a stellar day indoors. My point being, Luck demonstrated his talents in the elements, so you KNOW he's got it inside the Luke on Sundays as well. However, he demonstrated his talents on "road-game in Foxborough" conditions. I like that.

[Balzer40]

From what I seen of both pro days, Luck was outdoors in wind and Griffin was indoors in a climate controled atmosphere. Everybody knew that already but from what I watched(and I'll admit I skipped through some of both) Griffin threw a lot of very short and safe routes. The commentators were completely overreacting because he was completing 10-15 yd. throws and some of them were off the mark IMO. Luck threw more difficult routes in tougher weather conditions and his throws were pretty much perfect everytime. RG3 seemed more into putting on a show instead of concentrating on the reason why he was there. I don't want my QB trying to look flashy, the work he puts in on the field will do the talking for him. This is all my opinion but I'll take Luck everyday and twice on sunday.

[pacolts56]

Great post. To many, you are blaspheming, however, because Luck is only QB they would take. They would take him, not because they've studied his film (or Griffin's, for that matter), but because everyone has told them he's the greatest thing since whoever came out of college some decades ago. Now we are starting to see more and more analysis of the two, and there are a lot of experts switching sides, as it were. Not because it's hip or trendy, but because on tape, Griffin's passes look more like NFL passes than do Luck's. Plain, and simple. Luck's suppose "command" of a massive offense was really a controlled setting. It sprang forth out of limited formations where the openings were made FOR him by the schematic designs of the playbook. He was simply making an adjustment based on what the defense was doing. But please understand, people: he was not doing what Peyton Manning does. There was no psychological warfare, and he hardly ever punished a defense in a way that an NFL coach would lose sleep over. Griffin has better arm strength, better accuracy, and better touch. Griffin could deliver passes far better outside of the numbers, which is more important to an NFL offense than simply being able to call audibles. Maybe the decision making could go to Luck, but Griffin actually made fewer mistakes in the big moments from the film I've watched. I'm just trying to maintain my confidence in the pick, because Irsay is going to snap-grab Luck without doing the work. I wouldn't take the few things Luck offers over what Griffin offers, however. If decision making and command of an offense (though the latter trait is subjective) are most important, Blaine Gabbert would have been a better choice than Cam Newton. I'm okay with either player, but my opinion has changed to one in which I do believe RGIII will be a better professional QB than Andrew Luck. He already looks better, and also looks to have a better upside.

Well.... setting aside your "blaspheming" comment Doogan, I gotta ask you....

If what Stanford's offense and Andrew Luck achieved in 3 seasons is so simple.... with a revolving door of receiving targets at WR/TE/RB mind you....why isn't everyone doing it, and why did Stanford suck for years before Luck showed up? Surely they had other intelligent QBs (it is, after all, Stanford) with adequate arms to excell at the college level. Because Jim Harbaugh went 9-15 before Luck showed up and 20-6 after Luck became their starter, in case we want to entirely credit Stanford's escape from the PAC-12 toilet to Harbaugh and some sort of "controlled setting".

What happened?

Is it because classroom intelligence is different that football intelligence? Sure it is.... so I guess Luck has some football intelligence, a high degree of it, in fact.... like experts unanimously say.

And although you interpret that intelligence as Luck "simply making an adjustment based on what the defense was doing".... doesn't that actually fit the textbook definition of QB coverage reads that Luck used to "punish", yes, punish opposing defenses with a successful and almost perfectly balanced run/pass offense rarely seen at the college level?

Now.... was that Peyton Manning the 2nd out there?

Of course not.... just a balanced run/pass offense with a very smart and surprisingly athletic QB operating it. I kinda like the idea myself since our run game has been deplorable for 4 years and our otherwise Super Bowl-level, GOAT-led offense was vomited out of the playoffs on at least 1 occasion all because our badly de-emphasized run game sucked. Would having RGIII as a dual-threat QB help that? Sure.... until he gets creamed a couple times like Vince Young and Michael Vick have... and Cam Newton eventually will.

Which brings me to your Blaine Gabbert/Cam Newton reference.... because it's a terrible example to use since they both came from what was widely lamented by those same NFL experts as simplified "spread" offenses, the likes of which Griffin played in at Baylor. Subtract the athletic ability that Griffin and Newton clearly, if temporarily have, and you're left with a clueless statue of a "spread" QB in Gabbert who MIGHT be able to learn and develop into a solid NFL QB. I'm not holding my breath.

Whether Blaine Gabbert ever grows and develops into a solid NFL is anyone's guess. But whether Griffin and Newton eventually absorb the same rather nasty hits as Michael Vick....another rifle-armed guy who throws a beautiful long ball but never really had to read a college defense and took off running ALOT.... is far more predictable.

Is the "spread" slowly bleeding its way into the NFL? Yes it is.... but I don't want us to rebuild with a QB such as RGIII, who's been exclusively trained in it, with darn near all of the other 21 starting positions on this team up for grabs. Adding some spread aspects to the playbook is fine but I want an offense and a QB thats well-versed in running many formations and identifying when to just pound the defense when the situation dictates.

I don't dislike ANY of these QBs mentioned.... but with the available information, it is widely accepted that Andrew Luck is much more prepared for the NFL game than Robert Griffin III.

And since an entire rebuild of the Colts is underway... IMO, the last thing we need to spend a #1 overall pick on is a spread QB who carries that elusive word "upside".... which often winds up being as elusive as Griffin himself. Before he gets clobbered or maimed by NFL defenses, that is.

[Phil J]

Well.... setting aside your "blaspheming" comment Doogan, I gotta ask you....

If what Stanford's offense and Andrew Luck achieved in 3 seasons is so simple.... with a revolving door of receiving targets at WR/TE/RB mind you....why isn't everyone doing it, and why did Stanford suck for years before Luck showed up? Surely they had other intelligent QBs (it is, after all, Stanford) with adequate arms to excell at the college level. Because Jim Harbaugh went 9-15 before Luck showed up and 20-6 after Luck became their starter, in case we want to entirely credit Stanford's escape from the PAC-12 toilet to Harbaugh and some sort of "controlled setting".

What happened?

Is it because classroom intelligence is different that football intelligence? Sure it is.... so I guess Luck has some football intelligence, a high degree of it, in fact.... like experts unanimously say.

And although you interpret that intelligence as Luck "simply making an adjustment based on what the defense was doing".... doesn't that actually fit the textbook definition of QB coverage reads that Luck used to "punish", yes, punish opposing defenses with a successful and almost perfectly balanced run/pass offense rarely seen at the college level?

Now.... was that Peyton Manning the 2nd out there?

Of course not.... just a balanced run/pass offense with a very smart and surprisingly athletic QB operating it. I kinda like the idea myself since our run game has been deplorable for 4 years and our otherwise Super Bowl-level, GOAT-led offense was vomited out of the playoffs on at least 1 occasion all because our badly de-emphasized run game sucked. Would having RGIII as a dual-threat QB help that? Sure.... until he gets creamed a couple times like Vince Young and Michael Vick have... and Cam Newton eventually will.

Which brings me to your Blaine Gabbert/Cam Newton reference.... because it's a terrible example to use since they both came from what was widely lamented by those same NFL experts as simplified "spread" offenses, the likes of which Griffin played in at Baylor. Subtract the athletic ability that Griffin and Newton clearly, if temporarily have, and you're left with a clueless statue of a "spread" QB in Gabbert who MIGHT be able to learn and develop into a solid NFL QB. I'm not holding my breath.

Whether Blaine Gabbert ever grows and develops into a solid NFL is anyone's guess. But whether Griffin and Newton eventually absorb the same rather nasty hits as Michael Vick....another rifle-armed guy who throws a beautiful long ball but never really had to read a college defense and took off running ALOT.... is far more predictable.

Is the "spread" slowly bleeding its way into the NFL? Yes it is.... but I don't want us to rebuild with a QB such as RGIII, who's been exclusively trained in it, with darn near all of the other 21 starting positions on this team up for grabs. Adding some spread aspects to the playbook is fine but I want an offense and a QB thats well-versed in running many formations and identifying when to just pound the defense when the situation dictates.

I don't dislike ANY of these QBs mentioned.... but with the available information, it is widely accepted that Andrew Luck is much more prepared for the NFL game than Robert Griffin III.

And since an entire rebuild of the Colts is underway... IMO, the last thing we need to spend a #1 overall pick on is a spread QB who carries that elusive word "upside".... which often winds up being as elusive as Griffin himself. Before he gets clobbered or maimed by NFL defenses, that is.

i cant like this post enough and can't dislike doogan's post enough.

he has always been a Luck hater though. not surprised.

[Smitto]

Luck does have a tendency to float his balls... can't be doing that against guys like ed reed and Troy. What makes griffin better to me is his deep balls... they are so petty and accurate. Luck was great at reading defense in college.... that would've awesome if the NFL ran the same defenses.

[UndecidedFrog]

Luck does have a tendency to float his balls... can't be doing that against guys like ed reed and Troy. What makes griffin better to me is his deep balls... they are so petty and accurate. Luck was great at reading defense in college.... that would've awesome if the NFL ran the same defenses.

Luck puts the right touch on his balls so that his receivers, depending on their skill level, and how open they are, can catch them.

You do not want your QB to be lasering his passes to open receivers who may not have good hands. Luck will alter his balls as the environment dictates. Did you see him on his pro-day when he threw against the 15-20mph winds? I doubt they were floaters.

[Smitto]

Luck puts the right touch on his balls so that his receivers, depending on their skill level, and how open they are, can catch them.

You do not want your QB to be lasering his passes to open receivers who may not have good hands. Luck will alter his balls as the environment dictates. Did you see him on his pro-day when he threw against the 15-20mph winds? I doubt they were floaters.

Luck is not a wizard he doesn't care about the players hand, he throws the ball so the defender doesn't get to it.. his balls float which he can change just by working on the way he throws... ppl are trying to act like the wind made any real difference... both Griffin and Lucks pro day made little difference... there were no CBs no pressure its whatever. When it comes to games Luck floats his balls didn't matter in college but hopefully he doesn't try floating it too much in the pros.

[UndecidedFrog]

Luck is not a wizard he doesn't care about the players hand, he throws the ball so the defender doesn't get to it.. his balls float which he can change just by working on the way he throws... ppl are trying to act like the wind made any real difference... both Griffin and Lucks pro day made little difference... there were no CBs no pressure its whatever. When it comes to games Luck floats his balls didn't matter in college but hopefully he doesn't try floating it too much in the pros.

Luck cares very much if his passes are caught or not. He does not zip his balls to wide open receivers.

He does zip them in tight coverage. I value a QB that can control the velocity of his passes.

After watching both prodays, I find Luck's performance was more impressive than RG3's. RG3 was more inaccurate in his passes, such that his receivers needed to make good plays to catch them. Not so with Luck. Luck's balls were more accurate, even in the wind.

[Smitto]

Luck cares very much if his passes are caught or not. He does not zip his balls to wide open receivers.

He does zip them in tight coverage. I value a QB that can control the velocity of his passes.

After watching both prodays, I find Luck's performance was more impressive than RG3's. RG3 was more inaccurate in his passes, such that his receivers needed to make good plays to catch them. Not so with Luck. Luck's balls were more accurate, even in the wind.

Obviously he's gonna care what qb doesn't, luck is not the more accurate QB I've seen many deep balls of luck where the WR had to slow down to catch the ball unlike RGIII where he put his passes where they need to be. Both are accurate QBs but Griffin is more accurate. Like I said its hard to judge a QB when looking at them playing pitch and catch

[Malakai432]

Obviously he's gonna care what qb doesn't, luck is not the more accurate QB I've seen many deep balls of luck where the WR had to slow down to catch the ball unlike RGIII where he put his passes where they need to be. Both are accurate QBs but Griffin is more accurate. Like I said its hard to judge a QB when looking at them playing pitch and catch

I don't see why people think Luck is less accurate. Scouts and analyst are in awe about how effortlessly he gets the ball perfectly into his WRs hands, he also has perfect spirals for the most part. RGiii in all honesty looks more erratic than Luck, especially in the pocket. I've seen terribly over/under thrown wobbly balls which you just don't see Luck do hardly ever, sometime it seems like he's trying to hard. I think Luck is more accurate and has better pocket presence, awareness and is much more fluid like water. It's all a matter of opinion though as I've heard analyst and scouts say one is better than another at in virtually every category except for athleticism where RGiii is the clear winner. Ohhh unless your Merril Hoge who thinks RGiii is better at everything but they are both considered in the same class of athleticism, which I why I don't and NEVER have actually believed anything Merril Hoge has said.

[Jay305]

Cossell was the guy who was the lowest on Blaine Gabbert last year out of all the analysts.

[UndecidedFrog]

Cosell was also the guy who was high on Jawlarus Russell:

Greg Cosell on JaMarcus Russell for USA Today, 4/26/2007 [http://usat.ly/yuURnZ ]:

“Oh, man, can Russell flick it,” says NFL Network analyst Greg Cosell, who has broken down film of Russell and Quinn. “Like Elway, he has the ability to see and make downfield throws 50 yards when he’s on the move.

“If you think JaMarcus Russell is one of those special quarterbacks — and in the NFL right now, there’s Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Carson Palmer— you have to take him. I don’t know how the Raiders have him evaluated. But I can tell you watching him on film, he wowed me.”

Cosell also thinks Russell has all the tools to be great. “This kid is a special passer, and he’s got a complete inventory of throws,” he says. “He’s got that football intuition. He throws from different platforms, doesn’t always have to be perfectly set and can move within the boxing-ring space of the pocket to find the quiet area.”

[Dan]

I don't see why people think Luck is less accurate. Scouts and analyst are in awe about how effortlessly he gets the ball perfectly into his WRs hands, he also has perfect spirals for the most part. RGiii in all honesty looks more erratic than Luck, especially in the pocket. I've seen terribly over/under thrown wobbly balls which you just don't see Luck do hardly ever, sometime it seems like he's trying to hard. I think Luck is more accurate and has better pocket presence, awareness and is much more fluid like water. It's all a matter of opinion though as I've heard analyst and scouts say one is better than another at in virtually every category except for athleticism where RGiii is the clear winner. Ohhh unless your Merril Hoge who thinks RGiii is better at everything but they are both considered in the same class of athleticism, which I why I don't and NEVER have actually believed anything Merril Hoge has said.

The accuracy is an odd one - for ages it was assumed Luck was more accurate yet in recent weeks for no apparent reason opinion seems to be shifting the other way? Luck looked more accurate at his pro day so it can't be that. Frankly I'm always wowed by Luck's accuracy, Griffin's is good but I think he's a way behind Andrew.

[Andy]

Cosell was also the guy who was high on Jawlarus Russell:

Greg Cosell on JaMarcus Russell for USA Today, 4/26/2007 [http://usat.ly/yuURnZ ]:

“Oh, man, can Russell flick it,” says NFL Network analyst Greg Cosell, who has broken down film of Russell and Quinn. “Like Elway, he has the ability to see and make downfield throws 50 yards when he’s on the move.

“If you think JaMarcus Russell is one of those special quarterbacks — and in the NFL right now, there’s Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Carson Palmer— you have to take him. I don’t know how the Raiders have him evaluated. But I can tell you watching him on film, he wowed me.”

Cosell also thinks Russell has all the tools to be great. “This kid is a special passer, and he’s got a complete inventory of throws,” he says. “He’s got that football intuition. He throws from different platforms, doesn’t always have to be perfectly set and can move within the boxing-ring space of the pocket to find the quiet area.”

Jamarcus Russell... , you don't think the writing was on the wall... He was a kid with terrible work ethic who ended up in Oakland, the worst possible team for him.

[Jay305]

Cosell was also the guy who was high on Jawlarus Russell:

Greg Cosell on JaMarcus Russell for USA Today, 4/26/2007 [http://usat.ly/yuURnZ ]:

“Oh, man, can Russell flick it,” says NFL Network analyst Greg Cosell, who has broken down film of Russell and Quinn. “Like Elway, he has the ability to see and make downfield throws 50 yards when he’s on the move.

“If you think JaMarcus Russell is one of those special quarterbacks — and in the NFL right now, there’s Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Carson Palmer— you have to take him. I don’t know how the Raiders have him evaluated. But I can tell you watching him on film, he wowed me.”

Cosell also thinks Russell has all the tools to be great. “This kid is a special passer, and he’s got a complete inventory of throws,” he says. “He’s got that football intuition. He throws from different platforms, doesn’t always have to be perfectly set and can move within the boxing-ring space of the pocket to find the quiet area.”

LOL I find this funny because it seems like Greg and Mike Mayock are on opposite on two bad qbs. Mayock was high on Gabbert low on Russel and vice versa

[Malakai432]

LOL I find this funny because it seems like Greg and Mike Mayock are on opposite on two bad qbs. Mayock was high on Gabbert low on Russel and vice versa

Yeah but the thing about Gabbert that he still has a chance to make it up. We have no idea how Gabbert will fair out in his second year and his receiving corps in Jacksonville are ATROCIOUS. Colts had 3 WRs in the top 55 in receptions (with Painter/Collins/Orlavsky throwing) where as Jacksonville had none. Gotta give Gabbert another year or two then dump him if he doesn't do well. Gotta give your QB some receivers. Colts will have a solid WR staff with Wayne, Avery (very legit #2 if healthy), Collie, White and the draft hasn't hit yet. Heck regardless who we get atleast they will have some solid weapons. I am alittle worried about TE though. Throw in a solid TE and WR via the draft and whoever is the QB should have some pretty solid weapons.

[Smitto]

I don't see why people think Luck is less accurate. Scouts and analyst are in awe about how effortlessly he gets the ball perfectly into his WRs hands, he also has perfect spirals for the most part. RGiii in all honesty looks more erratic than Luck, especially in the pocket. I've seen terribly over/under thrown wobbly balls which you just don't see Luck do hardly ever, sometime it seems like he's trying to hard. I think Luck is more accurate and has better pocket presence, awareness and is much more fluid like water. It's all a matter of opinion though as I've heard analyst and scouts say one is better than another at in virtually every category except for athleticism where RGiii is the clear winner. Ohhh unless your Merril Hoge who thinks RGiii is better at everything but they are both considered in the same class of athleticism, which I why I don't and NEVER have actually believed anything Merril Hoge has said.

Luck is NOT the most accurate out of the two... so many times you see Griffin throwing the ball so the receiver doesn't have to stop and wait for it, while other times you see Lucks ball float and the receiver has to turn back or slow down and get it.. which is why he isn't considered the most accurate.

[DarthMonk]

New member here.

Just so you all know, I grew up in Maryland and went to Colt games in Baltimore. I saw John Unitas pass it on to Bert Jones. I watched the Mayflower vans drive away. Before that my favorite team was the Colts followed by the Redskins. After that the Redskins became my favorite team followed by the Colts.

I hate the Ravens.

Anyway, on our fan forum site in DC we are talking about Luck vs. RGIII as well. We have conducted polls to see whom the members would prefer. I was hoping to come here and (not troll) find out the same thing. It looks like I need at least 15 approved posts before I can do certain things. It also looks like I'm limited to 5 posts a day.

Have you guys run such a poll? Do you have the ability to do so on this site? If so, can someone start such a poll, i.e., Whom do you want us to pick - Luck or RGIII? If you already have can someone point me to it?

Thanks.

DarthMonk

[Jay305]

^ 97% of this forum wants Luck and Id say 40% of that 97% followed Luck here. They werent with us before this season

[Jay305]

Yeah but the thing about Gabbert that he still has a chance to make it up. We have no idea how Gabbert will fair out in his second year and his receiving corps in Jacksonville are ATROCIOUS. Colts had 3 WRs in the top 55 in receptions (with Painter/Collins/Orlavsky throwing) where as Jacksonville had none. Gotta give Gabbert another year or two then dump him if he doesn't do well. Gotta give your QB some receivers. Colts will have a solid WR staff with Wayne, Avery (very legit #2 if healthy), Collie, White and the draft hasn't hit yet. Heck regardless who we get atleast they will have some solid weapons. I am alittle worried about TE though. Throw in a solid TE and WR via the draft and whoever is the QB should have some pretty solid weapons.

Im sorry but from what I saw last year from Gabbert on multiple occasions has me believe he isnt an NFL qb. The biggest problem wasnt even his receivers it was him. As soon as the rush came he would turn into a headless chicken.

[GrizzColt]

Well.... setting aside your "blaspheming" comment Doogan, I gotta ask you....

If what Stanford's offense and Andrew Luck achieved in 3 seasons is so simple.... with a revolving door of receiving targets at WR/TE/RB mind you....why isn't everyone doing it, and why did Stanford suck for years before Luck showed up? Surely they had other intelligent QBs (it is, after all, Stanford) with adequate arms to excell at the college level. Because Jim Harbaugh went 9-15 before Luck showed up and 20-6 after Luck became their starter, in case we want to entirely credit Stanford's escape from the PAC-12 toilet to Harbaugh and some sort of "controlled setting".

What happened?

Is it because classroom intelligence is different that football intelligence? Sure it is.... so I guess Luck has some football intelligence, a high degree of it, in fact.... like experts unanimously say.

And although you interpret that intelligence as Luck "simply making an adjustment based on what the defense was doing".... doesn't that actually fit the textbook definition of QB coverage reads that Luck used to "punish", yes, punish opposing defenses with a successful and almost perfectly balanced run/pass offense rarely seen at the college level?

Now.... was that Peyton Manning the 2nd out there?

Of course not.... just a balanced run/pass offense with a very smart and surprisingly athletic QB operating it. I kinda like the idea myself since our run game has been deplorable for 4 years and our otherwise Super Bowl-level, GOAT-led offense was vomited out of the playoffs on at least 1 occasion all because our badly de-emphasized run game sucked. Would having RGIII as a dual-threat QB help that? Sure.... until he gets creamed a couple times like Vince Young and Michael Vick have... and Cam Newton eventually will.

Which brings me to your Blaine Gabbert/Cam Newton reference.... because it's a terrible example to use since they both came from what was widely lamented by those same NFL experts as simplified "spread" offenses, the likes of which Griffin played in at Baylor. Subtract the athletic ability that Griffin and Newton clearly, if temporarily have, and you're left with a clueless statue of a "spread" QB in Gabbert who MIGHT be able to learn and develop into a solid NFL QB. I'm not holding my breath.

Whether Blaine Gabbert ever grows and develops into a solid NFL is anyone's guess. But whether Griffin and Newton eventually absorb the same rather nasty hits as Michael Vick....another rifle-armed guy who throws a beautiful long ball but never really had to read a college defense and took off running ALOT.... is far more predictable.

Is the "spread" slowly bleeding its way into the NFL? Yes it is.... but I don't want us to rebuild with a QB such as RGIII, who's been exclusively trained in it, with darn near all of the other 21 starting positions on this team up for grabs. Adding some spread aspects to the playbook is fine but I want an offense and a QB thats well-versed in running many formations and identifying when to just pound the defense when the situation dictates.

I don't dislike ANY of these QBs mentioned.... but with the available information, it is widely accepted that Andrew Luck is much more prepared for the NFL game than Robert Griffin III.

And since an entire rebuild of the Colts is underway... IMO, the last thing we need to spend a #1 overall pick on is a spread QB who carries that elusive word "upside".... which often winds up being as elusive as Griffin himself. Before he gets clobbered or maimed by NFL defenses, that is.

Your post borders on brilliant. Very nice analysis.