154 replies to this topic

[Flash777]

First, let me start off by stating that I am the biggest Luck supporter. I work at Stanford and have watched him play all throughout his college career and couldn't be more happy that of all of the NFL teams he could have joined, he joined the Colts, my favorite NFL team.

 

This is not meant to be a thread to gripe about Luck; rather, a thread to honestly evaluate his progress.

 

In order to honestly evaluate his progress, I must first admit that the offensive system does not suit his style of play. If it wasn't for his incredible ability to avoid the rush without taking his eyes off downfield, he wouldn't complete any passes. I will also admit that we have one of the worst O-lines in the entire league. And lastly, I will admit that he is a rookie and so is his offensive supporting cast of receivers and TEs, which will usually lend itself to making mistakes.

 

Luck's low completion percentage is an issue, despite the afformentioned reasons. We can claim that the system calls for numerous downfield throws, but in reality, there are numerous shorter routes that Luck simply dismisses, opting and waiting for the downfield completion. If we are to honestly evaluate Luck, we have to admit that he can make some better decisions. He has regressed in this area tremendously over the last 4 games. He's now either at or below 50% completion over this span, which includes games against the defenses of the Bills, Lions, and Titans, no worldbeaters. Is this okay, either with Luck or Arians? Something has to change, right?  Furthermore, there is no area on the field where he averages greater than 65.7% completion (this happens to be throws behind the LOS). He averages 61.9% completion when throwing 1-10 yards past the LOS, which is still very low.

 

Luck has been pressured, more than any QB in the league. Thankfully, he is very good at avoiding the rush. That's a great strength, but at times it is negated by Luck's innacuracy. He'll avoid the pressure, step up and throw the ball well over the intended receiver's head, sometimes by 10 feet over. Sometimes it will be well behind the receiver. What ever it is, I get excited to see that he avoids the pressure, only to see him make a bad throw. I wish he'd be more accurate. (I am aware of the relentless pressure, but once it's avoided, it's simply completing the pass, which is an issue here). This isn't referring to when he's faced with pressure and throws in the face of pressure, which is difficult for any QB. This is referring to after avoiding pressure, or sometimes standing in the pocket and missing the open receiver.

 

The amount of turnovers for Luck is also too high. I am sure that everyone would agree with me that some of the INT's are okay because Luck has to attempt to make plays in order for the team to win. So it's a byproduct of the Colts being too reliant on Luck. However, there are times when he could've  made better throws and better decisions. He's had numerous 3-interception games.

 

Some will be upset with this evaluation, and that's fine. Please know that I know all of the reasons why he's struggled some, but that doesn't mean that Luck is beyond criticism. I would like to know how you would evaluate him so far.

 

Overall, I think he's amazing, but wish he would do some things better or Arian's does some things differently. I wouldn't trade him for anyone, and would choose him #1 all over again if that were possible.

 

[chad72]

To be honest, Big Ben should be swapping OCs with us.

 

Todd Haley's dink and dunk offense would perfectly suit Andrew Luck and this OL, and Arians' big play offense perfectly suits Big Ben's style of backyard ball play.

 

Luck does dismiss a lot of underneath routes, and is a tad too inaccurate when he has wide open receivers. Accuracy, sometimes even without pressure, is not as advertised and he needs to make some strides on that front. Throwing on the move is not something you can always plan for.

 

I am sure Luck is just as critical of himself and will do what is necessary to make a conscious change.

[Phil J]

Overthrows and way too high. Problem is not getting his feet set. Reason for that is his time to throw. Reason for THAT, is our garbage of an o-line.

[BLOODontheTRACKS]

tl;dr

[cmgww]

I think there might be something more to that knee injury that the Colts are letting on (and rightfully so, you don't want opponents targeting it). It seems to have coincided with his decline in accuracy. I don't think it the entire reason however. I also think the o line issues are maybe starting to get into his head a bit. As intelligent as he is, instinct can take over sometimes, and he will not go through his reads properly. Arians' system doesn't help. It's a feast or famine offense. That is great with a strong o-line and running game (consistent, not just halves of games like we have seen), but this year it just isnt a good fit. I think either Arians goes, or they address the line enough to make the offense work for Luck. When Big Ben had a line and a running game the Steelers were winning SBs. Then both went downhill and they looked pedestrian....I will give both a pass bc this year they are trying to fit square pegs into round holes, with scrap heap linemen to boot. If they come out next year and Luck is still inaccurate, then we have an issue. But remember his accuracy numbers at Stanford, and how they shot up his junior year (2nd year as QB). Give him more time to learn the system, a better kine , and let that knee heal (I don't think its too serious or he wouldn't be playing)

[Dan]

I really don't think he's been that good these last few weeks, though there are obviously mitigating factors. I'd love to see him given the chance to step up and set himself in the pocket to get a throw off, and also be given more short passes and fewer vertical hurls downfield. I strongly dislike Arians' playbook.

[TKnight85]

No Comment..................

[Mameluc]

To be honest, Big Ben should be swapping OCs with us.
 
Todd Haley's dink and dunk offense would perfectly suit Andrew Luck and this OL, and Arians' big play offense perfectly suits Big Ben's style of backyard ball play.
 
Luck does dismiss a lot of underneath routes, and is a tad too inaccurate when he has wide open receivers. Accuracy, sometimes even without pressure, is not as advertised and he needs to make some strides on that front. Throwing on the move is not something you can always plan for.
 
I am sure Luck is just as critical of himself and will do what is necessary to make a conscious change.

id have to agree with that there have been at least 3 throws to avery and 2 to TY hilton that would have been TD's have he been more acurate.

Also, vs the texans, a throw he made to Reggie on 3rd down that was almost picked off..if he would have not just starred at wayne the whole way and looked to his right.. Lavon Brazil (it hink or avery) took the CB and the S on his deep route and ty Hilton was WIDE OPEN on his right...it would have been an easy TD

[Balzer40]

Good Lord, Luck has not regressed. He is a rookie that is now 14 games into his rookie yr.. It's at this point that every starting rookie begins to wear down due to the much more physical play in the NFL. You said it yourself, the guy is rushed every time he drops back, he's been hit and sacked more than any QB this season.

People also seem to forget that even the great Peyton Manning had 28 int's his rookie yr. and that was with a much better O-line and more veteran leadership on the team. Why everybody keeps getting all bent out of shape because of his Int's is beyond me. IMO, with the crap O-line he has to deal with, it's a miracle he hasn't been much worse.

[Susie Q]

tl;dr

Could you explain that reply to me?

[Dan]

Good Lord, Luck has not regressed. He is a rookie that is now 14 games into his rookie yr.. It's at this point in every starting rookie begins to wear down due to the much more physical play in the NFL. You said it yourself, the guy is rushed every time he drops back, he's been hit and sacked more than any QB this season.

People also seem to forget that even the great Peyton Manning had 28 int's his rookie yr. and that was with a much better O-line and more veteran leadership on the team. Why everybody keeps getting all bent out of shape because of his Int's is beyond me. IMO, with the crap O-line he has to deal with, it's a miracle he hasn't been much worse.

 

I don't understand why you think he's not regressed - are his past four performances really on par with the game he put up against Miami? 

 

And the post wasn't getting bent out of shape about his interceptions alone, but the fact that three consecutive weeks his completion percentage has been below 50%, which is unacceptable no matter what mitigating factors you want to put on it, and also that he has made a number of questionable decisions. Yes, he's a rookie. Yes, he's shown a lot of very good skills. No, it's not calling him a bust or saying we should be concerned about whether he's the future or anything - I'm sure everyone still agrees we have a lot to be excited about. However, he has certainly regressed these last few weeks. It's very hard to deny that.

[Quantum88]

I have three words to describe what is happening - "David Carr Syndrome"

[QwizBoy]

I have three words to describe what is happening - "David Carr Syndrome"

  Oh, no. Don't even say that name around me lol. Carr had it much worse though, and for the sake of Colts fans I hope that 12 doesn't have DC Syndrome...It leads to low confidence and no trust in any offensive lineman, resulting in incompletions and mediocrity the remainder of a career. Common symptoms include wide eyes and cowering like a deer in headlights. I think our boy Blaine is a victim of this illness...

[lollygagger8]

I think Luck is the real deal, and it shows when he actually has a pocket to throw from. (not very often)

I'm more concerned with Luck's ever increasing tendency to stare down receivers.

[Balzer40]

I don't understand why you think he's not regressed - are his past four performances really on par with the game he put up against Miami? 
 
And the post wasn't getting bent out of shape about his interceptions alone, but the fact that three consecutive weeks his completion percentage has been below 50%, which is unacceptable no matter what mitigating factors you want to put on it, and also that he has made a number of questionable decisions. Yes, he's a rookie. Yes, he's shown a lot of very good skills. No, it's not calling him a bust or saying we should be concerned about whether he's the future or anything - I'm sure everyone still agrees we have a lot to be excited about. However, he has certainly regressed these last few weeks. It's very hard to deny that.

Because he hasn't regressed, if anything the O-line keeps regressing every week and thats hard to do considering just how bad they are to begin with. Like I said, it is completely normal for rookie's to start wearing down this time of the season. In Luck's case, it's even more natural that he's wearing down, he's been running around every game just trying to make a play.

And people have been hollering all season about the Int's. Im just pointing out that Manning had 10 more than Luck has(right now) his rookie season and he had a better O-line. It is nothing to be worried about. Now, if we have a good O-line next yr. and Luck is still throwing that many Int's, then it maybe time to get a little worried.

[RGIII]

I don't understand why you think he's not regressed - are his past four performances really on par with the game he put up against Miami? 

 

And the post wasn't getting bent out of shape about his interceptions alone, but the fact that three consecutive weeks his completion percentage has been below 50%, which is unacceptable no matter what mitigating factors you want to put on it, and also that he has made a number of questionable decisions. Yes, he's a rookie. Yes, he's shown a lot of very good skills. No, it's not calling him a bust or saying we should be concerned about whether he's the future or anything - I'm sure everyone still agrees we have a lot to be excited about. However, he has certainly regressed these last few weeks. It's very hard to deny that.

 

I'm not sure I'd say that he's regressed based on the tape (have yet to check out the last game, though).  That Miami game was a bit of an exception this season and it seemed to me that Luck was making reads and checking down to easier throws much better in that game than in any before or since.  If Luck isn't improving at the rate you are hoping for it might be because what he's doing now is working (for the most part), which removes a good deal of the pressure to rapidly evolve his game.  In that case, you'd hope that Arians would be in his ear trying to get him moving in the right direction... but I can't say that I have a ton of faith in Arians to do that.

 

Could you explain that reply to me?

 

tl;dr - Too long; didn't read.

[Imped]

I have three words to describe what is happening - "David Carr Syndrome"

Just reading that makes me feel uneasy and nervous. 

 

I hope Luck has a talk with Grigs over the offseason. Luck needs to have more input on the scheme, play-calling and who's doing it. He's the man, just as Peyton was, and his input matters. I'm sure he loves Arians but I'd be very surprised if he was perfectly content with the offense at the moment. 

[Susie Q]

I'm not sure I'd say that he's regressed based on the tape (have yet to check out the last game, though).  That Miami game was a bit of an exception this season and it seemed to me that Luck was making reads and checking down to easier throws much better in that game than in any before or since.  If Luck isn't improving at the rate you are hoping for it might be because what he's doing now is working (for the most part), which removes a good deal of the pressure to rapidly evolve his game.  In that case, you'd hope that Arians would be in his ear trying to get him moving in the right direction... but I can't say that I have a ton of faith in Arians to do that.

 

 

tl;dr - Too long; didn't read.

DUH  Thanks now I know if I can just remember.

[corgi]

Good Lord, Luck has not regressed. He is a rookie that is now 14 games into his rookie yr.. It's at this point that every starting rookie begins to wear down due to the much more physical play in the NFL. You said it yourself, the guy is rushed every time he drops back, he's been hit and sacked more than any QB this season.

People also seem to forget that even the great Peyton Manning had 28 int's his rookie yr. and that was with a much better O-line and more veteran leadership on the team. Why everybody keeps getting all bent out of shape because of his Int's is beyond me. IMO, with the crap O-line he has to deal with, it's a miracle he hasn't been much worse.

 

Someone else gets it. Everyone on this forum, Redskins fans, Patriots Fans, Texans fans all agree we have a sorry excuse for an O-Line. He's not setting his feet, the man said it himself. If you don't set your feet you aren't accurate, it's that simple.  It's hard to set your feet when you are wearing a d-lineman like a mink-scarf.

[gbrads_rants]

I dont think HE has regressed...I think its the OLine...they are God awful...I mean if you're getting no time because JJ Watt is eating your face off what do you expect...The Titans DLine had their way with them as well...However I think he needs to not focus on the big play...what I've learned about our QB is he's a computer...which isn't a good thing for now...He's being programmed to play a different style than the one he played at Stanford and because of that he's focused on that style of play only...Ideally the Colts should be modeled after the 49'ers a run oriented offense that takes advantage of the Play Action....Colin Kaepernick is similar to luck in terms of the arm as well as his athletism. What would be ideal is for the colts to run the ball MORE and focus on our TE's and set teams up for the long ball...our foundation is on the long ball...that's crazy to me.

[Flash777]

Because he hasn't regressed, if anything the O-line keeps regressing every week and thats hard to do considering just how bad they are to begin with. Like I said, it is completely normal for rookie's to start wearing down this time of the season. In Luck's case, it's even more natural that he's wearing down, he's been running around every game just trying to make a play.

And people have been hollering all season about the Int's. Im just pointing out that Manning had 10 more than Luck has(right now) his rookie season and he had a better O-line. It is nothing to be worried about. Now, if we have a good O-line next yr. and Luck is still throwing that many Int's, then it maybe time to get a little worried.

I agree that the O-line has regressed--from terrible to horrendous. As stated, we have one of the leagues worst O-lines. But I also stated that his completions behind the LOS is at 65%, which should be in the 70's, and throws 1-10 yard past the LOS are at 61%, which should be in the 70's or high 60's. Much of these throws do not have much to do with the O-line and has me a little alarmed. We're asking for shorter passes, but the stats show that even if we did call for shorter passes, Luck isn't completing a very high percentage of those either.

 

I'm not harping on the INT's entirely too much. But just because Manning had more INTS doesn't give Luck a "free pass." He's not Manning and may not ever be like manning. Luck has more wins hin is rookie year and less INTs than Manning did, but I still want better for Luck, if that makes sense.

[IndyTrav]

I have three words to describe what is happening - "David Carr Syndrome"

That's something I alluded to earlier in the season. I'm terrified he will become a flincher due to OLine play.

I think there are just to many factors going into Lucks play that there is no magical fix. It's part OL play, part scheme, part rookie mistakes, so on and so forth.

But we have played 3 pretty darn good DL in the last 3 weeks in Det, Tenn, Hou. That to plays a part.

[corgi]

I just want to see Luck with the lead, I think that helps too.

[Balzer40]

I agree that the O-line has regressed--from terrible to horrendous. As stated, we have one of the leagues worst O-lines. But I also stated that his completions behind the LOS is at 65%, which should be in the 70's, and throws 1-10 yard past the LOS are at 61%, which should be in the 70's or high 60's. Much of these throws do not have much to do with the O-line and has me a little alarmed. We're asking for shorter passes, but the stats show that even if we did call for shorter passes, Luck isn't completing a very high percentage of those either.
 
I'm not harping on the INT's entirely too much. But just because Manning had more INTS doesn't give Luck a "free pass." He's not Manning and may not ever be like manning. Luck has more wins hin is rookie year and less INTs than Manning did, but I still want better for Luck, if that makes sense.

I understand what you're saying, but IMO Luck's problems are not of his own doing. He is just under way too much pressure all the time. It has probably got in his head a little bit that he has to hurry his throws because if he don't he's going to get drilled. I just want the blame to go to who deserves it and IMO 95% of the blame goes to the O-line. Just because Luck has had accuracy problems does not mean it is his fault, I watched this kid all through college and he does not have accuracy problems when given time to read his progressions and make the throw. Accuracy doesn't just become a problem all of a sudden, it is a result of a much bigger problem, and that is the O-line.

[SIXTHOBJECT]

Q: Why is Brady, Rodgers, Ryan and Manning so good?

 

 

A: Because there O-line protects them.

 

Come on people Luck is not regressing at all, He took more sacks and didnt throw any int's! Im sorry but Lucks not the one to blame at all this week!

 

Flash777 put any of the above guys behind our line and they would pass under 50% as well.

 

I am really disappointed in this forum so much negitivity. Why dont we look at the bright side and be more positive we win where in. Far better then what we allExpected at the begainig of the season.

 

GO COLTS!!!

[MAC]

I have three words to describe what is happening - "David Carr Syndrome"

Well, it would probably take a few more years, but yeah, that's where I was going to go. Carr once looked like a fine prospect. Now he probably spends most of his free time praying that Eli doesn't get hurt, and flops into a fetal position every-time he hears the word "hike". Not good.

 

You want him to experience pressure as part of maturing in the position, but too much of a bad thing fosters the development of bad habits and makes it harder to methodically work on good ones. And frankly it's far more important for Luck to be improving than it is for the team to be winning.

[House]

Naw Andrews fine. I'm not worried. Yesterday wasn't a great game, but the Texans are a great D.

O-Line needs to man up collectively. They are a pathetic bunch at times.

[Susie Q]

Q: Why is Brady, Rodgers, Ryan and Manning so good?

 

 

A: Because there O-line protects them.

 

Come on people Luck is not regressing at all, He took more sacks and didnt throw any int's! Im sorry but Lucks not the one to blame at all this week!

 

Flash777 put any of the above guys behind our line and they would pass under 50% as well.

 

I am really disappointed in this forum so much negitivity. Why dont we look at the bright side and be more positive we win where in. Far better then what we allExpected at the begainig of the season.

 

GO COLTS!!!

Well the word negative didn't come into to play until you made your reply . It was just a post wanting others opinions. I think it is a very good thread and not negative at all. jmo of course.

[Flash777]

I understand what you're saying, but IMO Luck's problems are not of his own doing. He is just under way too much pressure all the time. It has probably got in his head a little bit that he has to hurry his throws because if he don't he's going to get drilled. I just want the blame to go to who deserves it and IMO 95% of the blame goes to the O-line. Just because Luck has had accuracy problems does not mean it is his fault, I watched this kid all through college and he does not have accuracy problems when given time to read his progressions and make the throw. Accuracy doesn't just become a problem all of a sudden, it is a result of a much bigger problem, and that is the O-line.

Balzer, I think that you are right. It's by no coincidence that as our O-line gets worse Luck's completion percentage and yards gained has declined. As Sixthobject pointed out, Brady, Rogers, Ryan, and Manning would all have difficulty playing behind our O-line. In fact, its Lucks ability to avoid the rush that has made the line look better than it actually is. 

 

It leads me to think that although there is no instant cure, there are steps we could take to help Luck. I think he's a difinite bright spot on the team.

 

Also, I do want to point ot that there is a difference between being critical and being negative. Being critical is essential if you want to make progress. I'm sure that the team does a critical analysis after every game by watching the game films. Just because we don't like what's being discussed, does not make it negative. (not directed at you Balzer).

[MAC]

Q: Why is Brady, Rodgers, Ryan and Manning so good?
 
A: Because there O-line protects them.
 
Come on people Luck is not regressing at all, He took more sacks and didnt throw any int's! Im sorry but Lucks not the one to blame at all this week!
 
Flash777 put any of the above guys behind our line and they would pass under 50% as well.

Wrong. And if it were that simple, why would people bother to invest top picks in QB's at all.

Peyton's oline in 2010 was far worse than this one, factoring in the volume of injuries. THIS line is the one that was rebuilt to replace THAT one. Take a look at Peyton's statistics from that year and think again. What changed with the lack of protection was yards per attempt. The lack of time led to a higher preponderance of quick/short passes - the lack of which was half of the OPs point. And all four QBs you mentioned are incredibly accurate. You can NOT be an elite QB without that.

[SIXTHOBJECT]

Well the word negative didn't come into to play until you made your reply . It was just a post wanting others opinions. I think it is a very good thread and not negative at all. jmo of course.

You dont have to out right say it to be negative....

[unitaswestand]

I think something to keep in mind in comparing Luck to Manning in their rookie years is that Manning got progressively better as the season went out.  If you look at his game statistics, most interceptions came early and by the end of the year he was more often throwing more TDs then INTs, as well as his completion percentage going up.  Luck hasn't had that bump.  If nothing else, he seems to be getting worse.  Obviously, the lack of an offensive line is affecting him.  But it is alarming how often his throws high balls.

[SIXTHOBJECT]

Wrong. And if it were that simple, why would people bother to invest top picks in QB's at all.

Peyton's oline in 2010 was far worse than this one, factoring in the volume of injuries. THIS line is the one that was rebuilt to replace THAT one. Take a look at Peyton's statistics from that year and think again. What changed with the lack of protection was yards per attempt. The lack of time led to a higher preponderance of quick/short passes - the lack of which was half of the OPs point. And all four QBs you mentioned are incredibly accurate. You can NOT be an elite QB without that.

They wouldnt be accurate if they got hit or had someone in there face all game long. This is the worst o-line I have ever seen for this team.  

[NewEra]

Wrong. And if it were that simple, why would people bother to invest top picks in QB's at all.

Peyton's oline in 2010 was far worse than this one, factoring in the volume of injuries. THIS line is the one that was rebuilt to replace THAT one. Take a look at Peyton's statistics from that year and think again. What changed with the lack of protection was yards per attempt. The lack of time led to a higher preponderance of quick/short passes - the lack of which was half of the OPs point. And all four QBs you mentioned are incredibly accurate. You can NOT be an elite QB without that.

 

 

well then wouldnt it be BA who has regressed? he is the one calling the plays getting Luck tore up from the floor up. We run the ball awesome, so what do we do? start running plays that take way to long to develop. even the commentators said the plays take to long to develop. just sitting in the pocket waiting for guys to get open. then BAM, hes hit once again. it is part oline, part Luck...but mainly BA putting them in that postition!!

[Stephen]

I think luck is getting better. Instead of throwing ball when he was going down he tucked it and took the sack. Instead of throwing int like he did in patriots and lions game when he stepped up in pocket he threw a td in texans game. The prob is sometimes he will throw too high like on a couple of his hilton passes and more noticibly when he throws to fleener.

[Tark The Shark]

I think Luck has been regressing as well.

 

But that will come with a rookie QB who is getting hit, a lot, and literally has to carry the offense for most of the season.

 

Also, Arians is the kind of OC that likes to throw the ball downfield. Arians is just now figuring out that with Ballard, we can run the ball. Luck didn't turn the ball over which the first time have seen that in weeks.

 

I think once we establish the run better, and get better on the offensive line, Luck will feel more relaxed and actually look off receivers and safeties. 

[SIXTHOBJECT]

why dont we talk about all the great plays he has made hmmmm....

[FireJimCaldwell]

Nobody is going to confuse this group for these guys:

 

But they aren't this group either like many want it to seem like.

[NewEra]

why dont we talk about all the great plays he has made hmmmm....

 

 

to easy to forget all the great comebacks and plays hes made. when we can blame him for running for his life in the texan game. against a 11-2 team at that, in their home, after a huge loss, who has a pretty good defense...shall I go on? wth...

[ColtsBlueFL]

To be honest, Big Ben should be swapping OCs with us.

 

Todd Haley's dink and dunk offense would perfectly suit Andrew Luck and this OL, and Arians' big play offense perfectly suits Big Ben's style of backyard ball play.

 

Luck does dismiss a lot of underneath routes, and is a tad too inaccurate when he has wide open receivers. Accuracy, sometimes even without pressure, is not as advertised and he needs to make some strides on that front. Throwing on the move is not something you can always plan for.

 

I am sure Luck is just as critical of himself and will do what is necessary to make a conscious change.

 

Big Ben heartily agrees with you.  He'd switch back in a NY minute.  Twice he's hinted at not liking Haley and his schemes.