A Steelers loss increases our chances. [Merge]

[GoColts8818]

Why not?  Anything can happen.  The Vikings could slug one out with the Texans.  Plus, it's Matt Schaub we're talking about, not Tom Brady. 

 

That said, if the Colts are locked into the 5th seed, would they kill themselves to win the finale?

Who knows, it goes back to that do you rest or not thing.  With that said we might need that game to get in too.  Things will be more clear after next week. 

[GoColts8818]

course its not impossible. any given sunday, but im not putting money on it happening.

and like I keep telling you I don't think the Vikings will win but there have been far greater upsets in NFL history than a team playing for it's playoff lives knocking off one of the better teams in football. 

[Jules]

Yes we just need to beat Kansas City that's easiest way in and frankly if we can't beat a bad Kansas City Team we don't deserve to go the playoffs. 

I am obsessed with the Chiefs this week.

[CR91]

and like I keep telling you I don't think the Vikings will win but there have been far greater upsets in NFL history than a team playing for it's playoff lives knocking off one of the better teams in football. 

im agreeing with you . course i rather see the texans then the broncos or pats in the divisional round so painfully ill root for the texans next week.

[CR91]

I am obsessed with the Chiefs this week.

as you should be. we need to pound these chiefs.

[Qwiz]

im agreeing with you . course i rather see the texans then the colts or pats in the divisional round so painfully ill root for the texans next week.

You would rather not face the Colts? Why not, that would be a great playoff game, Colts @ Colts.

[CR91]

You would rather not face the Colts? Why not, that would be a great playoff game, Colts @ Colts.

oops

[ConBro]

Is the bottom line this.

We beat the Chiefs we are #5?

If thats the case do whatever it takes to beat the Chiefs. Drink milk and have Pagano make speeches I don't care. BEAT THE CHIEFS. Christ, this is Brady Quinn and the Chiefs. If we can't get a win over them in KC we have issues.

Jules I love your posts

[dw49]

I just ran the scenario.  The problem is if the Steelers win out and the Giants and Bengals beat the Ravens there ends up a three way tie in the AFC North at 9-7 which the Steelers win.  The Ravens take the five seed while the Bengals the six seed leaving us out in the cold if we lose out even with a Jets loss.

 

 

That could be. I think we started out saying the Colts needed one more win to clinch a spot and could still be the case even if the jets lose monday. I guess if they can't beat the Chiefs there's a case for them not deserving to go.

[#12]

I just ran the scenario.  The problem is if the Steelers win out and the Giants and Bengals beat the Ravens there ends up a three way tie in the AFC North at 9-7 which the Steelers win.  The Ravens take the five seed while the Bengals the six seed leaving us out in the cold if we lose out even with a Jets loss.

 

The Yahoo simulator says the Colts win that scenario.  I don't see the Bengals beating us under any scenario.  

 

Here's a scenario no one is talking about.  If Baltimore wins out and the Patriots lose the finale to Miami, we would, at the 5th seed, play the Patriots instead of Baltimore.  You would think that, with still having a shot at the #2 seed, the Patriots would go all out vs. Miami, but with Denver playing KC in game 16, perhaps the Patriots would rather just take their chances with us and Houston than Pittsburgh and Denver.  The Patriots did rest their starters under a similar scenario in 2005, missing Pittsburgh in the WC round. 

 

That said, if the Ravens beat the Giants and the Bengals beat the Steelers, the Ravens may see nothing to play for against the Bengals in game 16, allowing the Bengals to possibly jump us to the #5 seed.   Should we lose this week and the Bengals win, we might have to beat Houston to avoid dropping to the #6 seed and playing the Patriots(assuming they do play all out and win both games).

 

A lot of things can still happen. 

[#12]

Of course, it's entirely possible for us to wind up in Pittsburgh. 

[chrisfarley]

Jets are a major concern, they stink but are winning. so we are in a dog-fight with them. rut-ro. with moore on our team, i am worried, you bet. B.A.'s little pet needs to go far away.

[1959Colts]

I just ran the scenario.  The problem is if the Steelers win out and the Giants and Bengals beat the Ravens there ends up a three way tie in the AFC North at 9-7 which the Steelers win.  The Ravens take the five seed while the Bengals the six seed leaving us out in the cold if we lose out even with a Jets loss. 

I think this is wrong.

Both of the wild card teams cannot come out of the same division.

[hawkeyes]

Jet will beat the Titans ...

[GoColts8818]

<blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="1959Colts" data-cid="363267" data-time="1355757077"><p>

I think this is wrong.<br />

Both of the wild card teams cannot come out of the same division.</p></blockquote>yes it can. It has happened many teams before.

[deedub75]

I think this is wrong.

Both of the wild card teams cannot come out of the same division.

 

 

Both can come out of the same division.  Analysts were talking about this yesterday.  If the Giants, Redskins, and Cowboys all win out, all 3 will make the playoffs with the Redskins winning the division. 

[1959Colts]

Both can come out of the same division.  Analysts were talking about this yesterday.  If the Giants, Redskins, and Cowboys all win out, all 3 will make the playoffs with the Redskins winning the division. 

We had been debating if the Jets lose do the Colts clinch?

And what happens if the AFC North teams all end up tied with same record?

From what I am reading, if the teams are all tied, both wild card teams cannot come out of same division.

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

So assuming the Jets lose and are out of the mix.

The only teams in contention (other than Colts) would all be from AFC North.

The way I see it. In that scenario, The Colts DO get in.

[1959Colts]

Please show me a way, if the Jets lose, that we do not clinch.

[1959Colts]

Here is what we were discussing...

GoColts8818 said:

I just ran the scenario. The problem is if the Steelers win out and the Giants and Bengals beat the Ravens there ends up a three way tie in the AFC North at 9-7 which the Steelers win. The Ravens take the five seed while the Bengals the six seed leaving us out in the cold if we lose out even with a Jets loss.

Under that scenerio it would look like this...

Steelers win out: Steelers 9-7

Giants and Bengals beat Ravens: Ravens 9-7

Bengals lose to Steelers, beat Ravens: Bengals 9-7

Colts lose out: Colts 9-7

TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM

Three or More Clubs

1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step

[deedub75]

Here is what we were discussing...

GoColts8818 said:

I just ran the scenario. The problem is if the Steelers win out and the Giants and Bengals beat the Ravens there ends up a three way tie in the AFC North at 9-7 which the Steelers win. The Ravens take the five seed while the Bengals the six seed leaving us out in the cold if we lose out even with a Jets loss.

Under that scenerio it would look like this...

Steelers win out: Steelers 9-7

Giants and Bengals beat Ravens: Ravens 9-7

Bengals lose to Steelers, beat Ravens: Bengals 9-7

Colts lose out: Colts 9-7

TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM

Three or More Clubs

1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step

 

 

No one really has a difinitive answer.  ESPN is still reporting that Colts clinch with a win against the Chiefs.  They say nothing about Colts clinching with a Jets loss tonight.  There must be a chance, however remote, that the Jets could lose tonight and the Colts lose the last 2 games and don't get in.  I've read several articles and I can't find one that says Colts can clinch tonight with a Jets loss. 

 

Even Phil B. of the Indianapolis Star is confused:

 

 http://www.indystar.com/article/20121217/SPORTS03/121217021/Bounce-Off-Phil-B-Colts-clinch-what-about-huh-

[dw49]

Here is the updated playoff picture according to NFL.com

 

 

 

 

AYOFF SCENARIOS

 

AFC

 

Instant Debate: The brutal North

Who will survive the AFC North? Can Andy Dalton'sBengals elbow aside theSteelers or Ravens? Our analysts weigh in. More ...

CLINCHED
New England Patriots -- AFC East
Denver Broncos -- AFC West
Houston Texans -- AFC South
Baltimore Ravens -- Playoff berth

ELIMINATED
Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers,Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns,Buffalo Bills.

AFC EAST

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Patriots clinched AFC East.

AFC NORTH

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Ravens clinch AFC North with:
1) Win OR
2) Tie + CIN loss or tie

CINCINNATI BENGALS

Bengals clinch playoff berth with:
1) Win + NYJ loss or tie

AFC SOUTH

HOUSTON TEXANS

Texans clinched AFC South.

Darlington: Statements made

The Falcons and the Texanswere among the teams serving notice to the NFL on Sunday, Jeff Darlingtonsays. More ...

Texans clinch home field throughout the AFC Playoffs with:
1) Win OR
2) NE loss or tie + DEN loss OR
3) Tie + DEN loss or tie

Texans clinch first-round bye with:
1) Win or tie OR
2) NE loss or tie OR
3) DEN loss

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Colts clinch playoff berth with:
1) Win or tie OR
2) PIT loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie

AFC WEST

DENVER BRONCOS

Broncos clinched AFC West.

Broncos clinch first-round bye with:
1) Win + NE loss or tie OR
2) Tie + NE loss

NFC

 

CLINCHED:
Green Bay Packers -- NFC North
Atlanta Falcons -- NFC South
San Francisco 49ers -- Playoff Berth

NFC EAST

NEW YORK GIANTS

Giants clinch a playoff berth with:
1) Win + WAS loss or tie + DAL loss + MIN loss + CHI loss OR
2) Win + WAS loss + NO tie + MIN loss + CHI loss

WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Redskins clinch a playoff berth with:
1) Win + NYG loss + MIN loss + CHI loss

DALLAS COWBOYS

Cowboys have no clinching scenarios in Week 16. However, they control their destiny in division

NFC NORTH

GREEN BAY PACKERS

Packers clinched NFC North

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Vikings have no clinching scenarios in Week 16

NFC SOUTH

Relive every game this season online and on-demand with enhanced viewing features, including the "All-22" coaches film. Get NFL Game Rewind.

ATLANTA FALCONS

Falcons clinched NFC South

Falcons clinch home-field advantage with: 
1) Win OR 
2) Tie + SF loss or tie OR 
3) GB loss or tie + SF loss

Falcons clinch first-round bye with:
1) Win or tie OR 
2) GB loss or tie OR

3) SF loss

 

NFC WEST

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

49ers clinched a playoff berth

49ers clinch a first-round bye with:
1) Win + GB loss or tie OR
2) Tie + GB loss

49ers clinch NFC West Division with:
1) Win or tie

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Seahawks clinch a playoff berth with:
1) Win OR
2) WAS loss + MIN loss + CHI loss OR
3) Tie + MIN loss or tie + CHI loss or tie OR
4) Tie + NYG loss + CHI loss or tie OR
5) Tie + NYG loss + MIN loss or tie OR
6) Tie + WAS loss + DAL loss + CHI loss or tie OR
7) Tie + WAS loss + DAL loss + MIN loss or tie OR
8) Tie + WAS tie + DAL loss or tie + MIN loss + CHI loss

•  

[#12]

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Colts clinch playoff berth with:

1) Win or tie OR

2) PIT loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie

 

With one Jets loss, every simulation you run has the Colts making it.  I haven't looked into this deeply.  Is it due to strength of victory, which could fluctuate? 

[GoColts8818]

Here is what we were discussing...

GoColts8818 said:

I just ran the scenario. The problem is if the Steelers win out and the Giants and Bengals beat the Ravens there ends up a three way tie in the AFC North at 9-7 which the Steelers win. The Ravens take the five seed while the Bengals the six seed leaving us out in the cold if we lose out even with a Jets loss.

Under that scenerio it would look like this...

Steelers win out: Steelers 9-7

Giants and Bengals beat Ravens: Ravens 9-7

Bengals lose to Steelers, beat Ravens: Bengals 9-7

Colts lose out: Colts 9-7

TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM

Three or More Clubs

1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step

Right and I am telling you what ESPN playoff machine said, I don't think we have clinched the tie breaker over the Bengals yet is the problem.  If we lose to KC that hurts us in terms of the AFC Tiebreaker which I think is the problem.  If you don't believe me you can go run it yourself to see. 

 

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

 

If Steelers beat Bengals and Browns.

 

We lose out and the Ravens lose out we miss the playoffs even if the Jets lose one of their last three.

[CR91]

Both can come out of the same division.  Analysts were talking about this yesterday.  If the Giants, Redskins, and Cowboys all win out, all 3 will make the playoffs with the Redskins winning the division. 

 

redskins and cowboys play in the finale so both cant win out

[#12]

Right and I am telling you what ESPN playoff machine said, I don't think we have clinched the tie breaker over the Bengals yet is the problem.  If we lose to KC that hurts us in terms of the AFC Tiebreaker which I think is the problem.  If you don't believe me you can go run it yourself to see. 

 

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

 

If Steelers beat Bengals and Browns.

 

We lose out and the Ravens lose out we miss the playoffs even if the Jets lose one of their last three.

You must have made a mistake.  I just ran it, and the Colts make it.  They do on the Yahoo simulator as well.   

 

If the Jets lose, under every scenario you run on both simulators, the Colts make it.  I suppose someone will have to go through the steps and do the math. 

[1959Colts]

Regardless what espns playoff machine says.

I am going by what the NFL's rules on tie breakers says.

In the event of a tie for the wildcard...

When teams are tied within a division, the tiebreaker eliminates all but the highest ranked club within that division.

That being said, there is no possible way for both wildcard teams to come out of the AFC North.

[1959Colts]

GOColts 8818...

If Steelers beat Bengals and Browns.

Then the Steelers are 9-7

We lose out and we are 9-7

The Ravens lose out and they are 9-7

and that would make the Bengals 9-7

Therefore the tie breaker procedure would first determine who is the AFC North divisional winner.

Then the tiebreaker would eliminate the bottom team from the AFC North.

The Colts would make it, along with the other remaining team from AFC North.

[GoColts8818]

You must have made a mistake.  I just ran it, and the Colts make it.  They do on the Yahoo simulator as well.   

 

If the Jets lose, under every scenario you run on both simulators, the Colts make it.  I suppose someone will have to go through the steps and do the math. 

That's the whole point to the ESPN playoff machine it does the math for you.  I am not doing any math just plugging in who wins games and who loses.  Think about it.  If we made the playoffs off the Jets losing people would be saying simply a Jets lose would put us in the playoffs. They aren't because it doesn't.  This is the one way I've come up with we can miss the playoffs losing. 

 

Here it is again.

 

Colts lose out.

 

Ravens lose out.

 

Steelers win out.

 

Bengal lose to Steelers but beat Ravens.

 

In my scenario Chargers beat Jets but Jets beat Bills and Titans and that appears to be the key.  If you change who the Jets lose too it puts the Colts in.  Heck even if the Jets lose to the Chargers but also lose to the Titans or Bills we go in. 

 

The Steelers win the AFC North, the Ravens become the five seed and the Bengals become the six seed and we miss out. 

 

This isn't math it's what ESPN's playoff Machine is saying which is why I posted the link.  I've run that scenario on there three times now and it comes out the same way everytime. 

[GoColts8818]

GOColts 8818...

If Steelers beat Bengals and Browns.

Then the Steelers are 9-7

We lose out and we are 9-7

The Ravens lose out and they are 9-7

and that would make the Bengals 9-7

Therefore the tie breaker procedure would first determine who is the AFC North divisional winner.

Then the tiebreaker would eliminate the bottom team from the AFC North.

The Colts would make it, along with the other remaining team from AFC North.

No It wouldn't I am telling you I just ran this on ESPN's webpage again, go run it as I said in the post above and you'll see the Steelers go in as the North Champion and the Ravens and Bengals go in as the wild card teams.  The key seems to be in order for this to happen though the Jets HAVE to beat the Bills and Titans but LOSE to the Chargers.  If you change anything on that end part it does put the Colts in. 

[#12]

In my scenario Chargers beat Jets but Jets beat Bills and Titans and that appears to be the key.  If you change who the Jets lose too it puts the Colts in.  Heck even if the Jets lose to the Chargers but also lose to the Titans or Bills we go in. 

Okay, that's the key. 

 

 

That's the whole point to the ESPN playoff machine it does the math for you.

I was talking about strength of victory, if it came down to that.  The simulator can't predict future strength of victory.

[Malakai432]

You would rather not face the Colts? Why not, that would be a great playoff game, Colts @ Colts.

Lol

[Jules]

From what I have gathered nothing matters if the Colts beat the Chiefs, we would be #5. Period.

Now the Jets can still get in sadly even if we get in.

I read this:

Yes, the Jets are still alive

Have patience with us. We still haven't forked the Jets and it won't happen any time soon if Gang Green takes care of business against the Tennessee Titans on Monday night.

Rex Ryan's merry bunch is alive. If the Jets win their final three games -- which would mean five consecutive wins to close the season -- they're playing in January IF the winner of Bengals vs. Steelers loses the following week. Scarily possible considering the Jets face the Chargers and Bills to close the campaign.

The NFC North is pretty darn confusing so who knows what happens. And if NY loses tonight they are pretty much done.

But, we have to win, we control our own destiny vs. Brady Quinn.

[1959Colts]

If the Jets lose one game they have 8 loses and Jets are eliminated.

[1959Colts]

No It wouldn't I am telling you I just ran this on ESPN's webpage again, go run it as I said in the post above and you'll see the Steelers go in as the North Champion and the Ravens and Bengals go in as the wild card teams.  The key seems to be in order for this to happen though the Jets HAVE to beat the Bills and Titans but LOSE to the Chargers.  If you change anything on that end part it does put the Colts in. 

If the Steelers win the division...

Then the Ravens and Bengals would be tied at 9-7.

The tiebreaker proceedure then eliminates one of those remaining teams.

[GoColts8818]

Okay, that's the key. 

 

 

I was talking about strength of victory, if it came down to that.  The simulator can't predict future strength of victory.

I found the other key.  The Raiders would have to beat the Panthers as well. When I was running the same scenario on ESPN I was getting a different result on yahoo and when I looked closer I realized that was the difference.  When I changed the Raiders to beating the Panthers it matched what I had on ESPN.com

[1959Colts]

ESPNs computer may do the math, but I think it is not correctly applying the NFL's tiebreaker rules?

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

[Jules]

If the Bengals beat the Steelers and then lose to the Ravens then the Jets get in at 6 if they win out.

This stuff if funny.

[#12]

In my scenario Chargers beat Jets but Jets beat Bills and Titans and that appears to be the key.  If you change who the Jets lose too it puts the Colts in.  Heck even if the Jets lose to the Chargers but also lose to the Titans or Bills we go in. 

On second thought, no.  If the Jets lose to the Chargers, they're 8-8.  They would have no effect on the tie breakers.  Under this scenario the Colts make it as well.  Not sure how you're getting that. 

[GoColts8818]

If the Steelers win the division...

Then the Ravens and Bengals would be tied at 9-7.

The tiebreaker proceedure then eliminates one of those remaining teams.

and I keep telling you it doesn't I have run this both on yahoo and ESPN and you can get a scenario where the Colts miss out with two AFC North teams in the playoffs.  You can have three teams go to the playoffs from one division.  This happened with the AFC South in 2007 when the Colts, Jags, and Titans all made it. 

[1959Colts]

The first wildcard tiebreaker eliminates all but one team from NFC North.