57 replies to this topic

[BleedingBlue]

On paper we're abysmal..but we are winning and that all that matters…right? Well, its a miracle that we are even winning and if you look at the statistics below you can't even imagine that our record is accurate. Some will point to Andrew Luck and say he deserves MVP. Some will say an easy schedule. Others may say that we have a talented GM (that has made us all look foolish with our criticism of some of his moves). Others may point to Chuck Pagano's illness and the team rallying.

Check out these statistics and ask yourself…how are we winning, exactly?


Outscored with a winning record:
Last week, the colts are only the 5th team in NFL history to have won 8 games by scoring less than 40 points more than they gave up.

Week 12
PF 265
PA 305

This difference has gotten better thanks to us outscoring the Titans. 292/329

Turnover Differential more fitting for a 2-11 team:
The colts are the only team in 2012 with a winning record and a negative (-16) Turnover Differential. In fact the closest thing to a winning team with a -10 TO differential is Dallas with a 6-6 record. Thats a full +6 WORSE than us and they have a .500 winning percentage. To put it in perspective only the Hapless Eagles (-18) and K.C (-21) are worse than the Colts and they only have 5 wins combined. If it wasn't for our Pick 6 on Locker, we'd be -17.

We are used to getting a lot of turnovers from Freeney, but this year his numbers are horrible. He has 5 tackles and 2 sacks. No FFs for Freeney this year.

TO differential is the biggest thing bookies use to create point spreads and I'm surprised we get the spreads we do with out TO.

Surprising QB statistics:
If you look at Andrew Lucks stats vs Robert Griffins stats you would think that RG3 was the colts QB and Andrew Luck was QB of the Washington Redskins. But this isn't about RG3, this is about the Colts and it would only be fair to compare our production at QB to what we had last year…right? ok, well here it is below.

I won't label the stats, but try guessing which are Andrew Lucks stats and which are the Coalition of Collins, Painter and Orlovsky.

completions: 302 vs 295
attempts: 534 vs 537
completion %: 56% vs 54.9%
yards: 3223 vs 3792
TDs: 14 vs 18
INTs: 14 vs 18

New Roster:
According to Arians, before the pats game half the players in the locker room raised their hands to testify it was their first time in Foxboro. However according to Bill Polian the colts are fielding 60% of the players from their last super bowl. According to a CBS statistic shown this weekend Grigson brought in 35 new players. I put that at slightly more than half of our roster is new.


Luck or Lucky?
Last week vs the Lions… with fans leaving the stadium and the game all but wrapped up, Calvin Johnson dropped two HUGE passes in the 4th quarter, both on 3rd down conversions, both right in his hands. On paper it looks like Butler did a great job. On film its a different story. Butler was burned on both instances. The ball was right in Johnsons hands in both instances and he dropped both passes resulting in punts in both instances. No one attributes our comeback to these dropped passes by the highest rated player in Madden 13 (99).

So, why are we winning?
I think its a combination of things. Luck and luck, Arians and Chuck and Chuckstrong, Grigs and his acquisitions through draft, cfl and free agency...and as AL says, a roster full of guys who don't know when to stop playing and obviously the will to win. Or maybe the NFL is just fixed lol.

If we beat the Texans, then this team truly is a miracle.

[#12]

Clutch play. They win in the most important moments.

- The defense isn't great, but they seem to get stops and hold teams to FGs when they need to.
- They don't run the ball well, but seem to in the second half and on game deciding drives.
- Luck is a rookie and isn't perfect, but on 3rd down, at the end of halves, at the end of games, he's money.
- Overall good special teams play, with good kicking and punting from McAfee. His punt inside the 2 was the unheralded play of the game.

[SteelCityColt]

Pat has been excellent punting in the last two games, is he a FA at the end of the season?

[tyvon19]

easy

8-1 in 1 score games

lucks stats in the clutch -> 17/27 252 yards 3 td 0 int 130.4 rating and this includes 3 spikes so its really 17/25 or 140.3

[oldunclemark]

I am stumped....and it makes me a little uneasy going forward.....but as others keep telling me..

dont worry..we could be the Cardinals...

[The Fish]

Lose a few big and win a bunch close.. not confusing.

[SilentHill]

FWIW, When you have a young team with as many rookies starting as we do combined with an entirely new defense, past stats are generally irrelevant, We are learning and growing at an exponential rate. As we started from scratch we are generally expected to progress and get better as the season goes on, our TO differential and Point differential are both headed in the right direction as we move forward in the season.

[Balzer40]

I am stumped....and it makes me a little uneasy going forward.....but as others keep telling me..

dont worry..we could be the Cardinals...

What is there to be uneasy about? Unless you're solely talking about the rest of this season.

This team's future is extremely bright and with the money we have to spend on free agency and these rookie's having a full yr. under their belt next season, the rest of the AFC are on notice. The Colts are back and coming to reclaim the division and possibly the conference.

[Smonroe]

It's a good thing the games aren't played on paper.

One thing Madden can't replicate is the flow and ebb of a game. Take one game - team A plays lights out in two Qs, then subpar the other two. The stats show they had an average game. Whereas they may have done enough in one half alone to win, or in the other to lose. That's why I always laugh when people bring up Madden ratings.

Luck is something like 28 on QB ratings. Does anyone really think there are 27 guys better than him?

[ColtsBlueFL]

The great things about Andrew Luck-

He has amnesia, completely forgets about previous bad plays.
Understands the critical situations in a game
Manages the critical situations in the game. Arians coaches it well, and Luck excels at it.
Displays Leadership. But relies on vets too.

This team plays as a team, under Luck/Arians.

[Narcosys]

The easy schedule is a rediculous argument. We have 6 games in the division, constant. We have 4 games with another division in the AFC, designed on a rotational basis. We have 4 games with a division in the NFC, designed on a rotational basis. We have 2 games, only two games in the AFC where we face a team who placed the same as us. And our SoS was still tied 14th in the league when the season started. The Redskins had the easier schedule at like 26. That argument is toast before it even comes out of the persons mouth.

[Coltsagent]

We let the greatest player EVER walk out the door, there better had been a real good reason for it!

[Balzer40]

I attribute most of this seasons success to just all around better coaching. From the lowest rung of the coaching staff all the way up to the idea's, scheme's, and most importantly, the attitude that Pagano has instilled in this team from the time he was hired. The man is just a great leader and it has resonated even in his absence. This is what having a great coaching staff does for even a mediocre football team.

[FanFromtheWasteland]

On paper we're abysmal..but we are winning and that all that matters…right? Well, its a miracle that we are even winning and if you look at the statistics below you can't even imagine that our record is accurate. Some will point to Andrew Luck and say he deserves MVP. Some will say an easy schedule. Others may say that we have a talented GM (that has made us all look foolish with our criticism of some of his moves). Others may point to Chuck Pagano's illness and the team rallying.

Check out these statistics and ask yourself…how are we winning, exactly?


Outscored with a winning record:
Last week, the colts are only the 5th team in NFL history to have won 8 games by scoring less than 40 points more than they gave up.

Week 12
PF 265
PA 305

This difference has gotten better thanks to us outscoring the Titans. 292/329

Turnover Differential more fitting for a 2-11 team:
The colts are the only team in 2012 with a winning record and a negative (-16) Turnover Differential. In fact the closest thing to a winning team with a -10 TO differential is Dallas with a 6-6 record. Thats a full +6 WORSE than us and they have a .500 winning percentage. To put it in perspective only the Hapless Eagles (-18) and K.C (-21) are worse than the Colts and they only have 5 wins combined. If it wasn't for our Pick 6 on Locker, we'd be -17.

We are used to getting a lot of turnovers from Freeney, but this year his numbers are horrible. He has 5 tackles and 2 sacks. No FFs for Freeney this year.

TO differential is the biggest thing bookies use to create point spreads and I'm surprised we get the spreads we do with out TO.

Surprising QB statistics:
If you look at Andrew Lucks stats vs Robert Griffins stats you would think that RG3 was the colts QB and Andrew Luck was QB of the Washington Redskins. But this isn't about RG3, this is about the Colts and it would only be fair to compare our production at QB to what we had last year…right? ok, well here it is below.

I won't label the stats, but try guessing which are Andrew Lucks stats and which are the Coalition of Collins, Painter and Orlovsky.

completions: 302 vs 295
attempts: 534 vs 537
completion %: 56% vs 54.9%
yards: 3223 vs 3792
TDs: 14 vs 18
INTs: 14 vs 18

New Roster:
According to Arians, before the pats game half the players in the locker room raised their hands to testify it was their first time in Foxboro. However according to Bill Polian the colts are fielding 60% of the players from their last super bowl. According to a CBS statistic shown this weekend Grigson brought in 35 new players. I put that at slightly more than half of our roster is new.


Luck or Lucky?
Last week vs the Lions… with fans leaving the stadium and the game all but wrapped up, Calvin Johnson dropped two HUGE passes in the 4th quarter, both on 3rd down conversions, both right in his hands. On paper it looks like Butler did a great job. On film its a different story. Butler was burned on both instances. The ball was right in Johnsons hands in both instances and he dropped both passes resulting in punts in both instances. No one attributes our comeback to these dropped passes by the highest rated player in Madden 13 (99).

So, why are we winning?
I think its a combination of things. Luck and luck, Arians and Chuck and Chuckstrong, Grigs and his acquisitions through draft, cfl and free agency...and as AL says, a roster full of guys who don't know when to stop playing and obviously the will to win. Or maybe the NFL is just fixed lol.

If we beat the Texans, then this team truly is a miracle.

Taking more advantage of our opponents mistakes than they are of our mistakes

[JustAColtsFan]

The guy sitting next to me at the game yesterday said it best: Sometimes it's better to be LUCKY than GOOD! Well I'll take lucky this season but I want GOOD next season and I fully believe we will be

[John Dee]

The giveaway takeaway issue is not as big a "problem" as many may think. DD brought up a very telling stat on 1070 today saying something to the effect that of all the INT's minus the 2 pick 6's, and end of half hail Mary's, that of the rest Indy's D had only given up like 13 points off of those possession swaps. That is incredible. And that is why Indy has the record it does in these close games.

The Colts have been as good as ANY team in the NFL at situational football. Late game drives, late game D, 3rd down conv, halftime adjustments, and on and on...

The team is mentally tough, and they are SMART. They don't beat themselves late in games.

Some really great coaching and excellent situational awareness have been huge contributors to this team's success.

[BleedingBlue]

The easy schedule is a rediculous argument. We have 6 games in the division, constant. We have 4 games with another division in the AFC, designed on a rotational basis. We have 4 games with a division in the NFC, designed on a rotational basis. We have 2 games, only two games in the AFC where we face a team who placed the same as us. And our SoS was still tied 14th in the league when the season started. The Redskins had the easier schedule at like 26. That argument is toast before it even comes out of the persons mouth.

We have a princess schedule in a cupcake conference.

in your own words....

"4 games against NFC teams...."

Love it when people null their own arguments while talking....

[John Dee]

The guy sitting next to me at the game yesterday said it best: Sometimes it's better to be LUCKY than GOOD! Well I'll take lucky this season but I want GOOD next season and I fully believe we will be

So the halftime adjustments Indy made totally flipping a 20-7 deficit into a 27-23 WIN was lucky?

That is silly... This team is making it's own luck, in fact the officiating made Indy's path a lot harder than it really should have been.... but the Colts were "lucky"

The Colts came out to play in the second half, Tenn thought they had the game won.... They were wrong.

[John Dee]

We have a princess schedule in a cupcake conference.

in your own words....

"4 games against NFC teams...."

Love it when people null their own arguments while talking....

Ummmm Indy is 3-1 against the mighty NFC... Indy's L's have come against Chi, NYJ, Jax, and NE.

[basketballsteve]

On Paper, the Colts are not very good..

On paper, Andrew Luck is not very good either.

Andrew is the 31st rated QB in the leaque by passer rating and is rated as less effective than Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Michael Vick, and only slightly higher than Mark Sanchez. The Qb rating system rewards QB's for TDs they produce by passing and ignores completely TDs Qb's produce by rushing. Alex Smith is the #2 rated QB and is only 000.1 behind the #1 rated RG3 but he has been benched as not as good as the second string QB for the 49er's. The Qb rating system does not take into account #'s that could be a part of the system like 1st downs produced by passing. I would further suggest to you that Reggie is great this year because he's catching balls from Luck not Curtis Painter. Even If you don't watch the games with your own eyes you would be a fool to rely on the QB ratings to determine who was a good QB and I dare say the same is true if you rely on many of the statistical ratings for the other positions and team units.

I don't care what the stats say or the experts say because I've watched every snap from center the Colts have played this year so I don't need stats to confirm what I have witnessed with my own eyes and that is that when the game is on the line Andrew is able to produce and play his best a very high amount of the time and the same can be said of a number of the other Colt players.

The Colts are not an elite team.....I know that and I absolutely don't care....I am enjoying watching them play and rooting for them each Sunday more that any Colt team since 1966.

The season this year will most assuredly end with a painful loss....but until the magic of this season has run out I'll keep hoping for the ultimate miracle and I'm enjoying the ride and nothing anybody says or writes can diminish that for me.

[GoColts8818]

We are 8-1 in one score games while being blown out badly in three loses this year that's what accounts for score difference.

That just tells me the Colts are take advantage of just about every chance they have. That is great. Frankly all this experience in one score games and a playoff hunt is going to pay off so much down the road for this team. It's invaluable knowledge and something great to take from this season!

[John Dee]

On Paper, the Colts are not very good..

On paper, Andrew Luck is not very good either.

Andrew is the 31st rated QB in the leaque by passer rating and is rated as less effective than Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Michael Vick, and only slightly higher than Mark Sanchez. The Qb rating system rewards QB's for TDs they produce by passing and ignores completely TDs Qb's produce by rushing. Alex Smith is the #2 rated QB and is only 000.1 behind the #1 rated RG3 but he has been benched as not as good as the second string QB for the 49er's. The Qb rating system does not take into account #'s that could be a part of the system like 1st downs produced by passing. I would further suggest to you that Reggie is great this year because he's catching balls from Luck not Curtis Painter. Even If you don't watch the games with your own eyes you would be a fool to rely on the QB ratings to determine who was a good QB and I dare say the same is true if you rely on many of the statistical ratings for the other positions and team units.

I don't care what the stats say or the experts say because I've watched every snap from center the Colts have played this year so I don't need stats to confirm what I have witnessed with my own eyes and that is that when the game is on the line Andrew is able to produce and play his best a very high amount of the time and the same can be said of a number of the other Colt players.

The Colts are not an elite team.....I know that and I absolutely don't care....I am enjoying watching them play and rooting for them each Sunday more that any Colt team since 1966.

The season this year will most assuredly end with a painful loss....but until the magic of this season has run out I'll keep hoping for the ultimate miracle and I'm enjoying the ride and nothing anybody says or writes can diminish that for me.

Well said.. most folk who criticize Luck or Indy simply look at stats and schedule.

They do not watch every game like we do. And if one does take the time to watch this team you find this is a pretty dang good team. Sure they are turning it over too much the but they are not giving up point off those TO's. In other words they are simply not hurting Indy as much as they could.

This team is very young and gaining confidence with every win. I would not want to play Indy come playoff time.

[subvet]

Don't analyze why they shouldn't win, relish the fact that they are because the only important stat is the won/loss record.

Like the old saying goes, "some people would complain if you hung them with a NEW rope."

[Superman]

Pat has been excellent punting in the last two games, is he a FA at the end of the season?

As a matter of fact, he is. I hadn't thought too much about that before now, but I'm sure he'll be a priority. Now that his directional kicking has improved, he's easily a top five punter in the league. And he kills every kickoff.

[Superman]

We have a princess schedule in a cupcake conference.

in your own words....

"4 games against NFC teams...."

Love it when people null their own arguments while talking....

Just to get your opinion, what is so easy about our schedule?

[shakedownstreet]

statistics are like g-strings. they show you a lot, but cover up what really matters

[Danny Darville]

just think if we had two starting linebackers who knew how to play their position....play off teams will exploit that fact...they study film also!

[Superman]

just think if we had two starting linebackers who knew how to play their position....play off teams will exploit that fact...they study film also!

Our linebacker situation is kind of the least of our worries right now.

[John Dee]

Ya, IMO LB is the strength of the D. They are getting to the ball and making plays.

DL and S are weak spots IMO.

But Rome was not built in a day.. Indy will get er done.

[Danny Darville]

we have good players at important positions....qb,ss,wr,de,inside lbs,center,rb,te,punter,coaching and player evaluation help also when signing free agents.

[SteelCityColt]

As a matter of fact, he is. I hadn't thought too much about that before now, but I'm sure he'll be a priority. Now that his directional kicking has improved, he's easily a top five punter in the league. And he kills every kickoff.

Don't forget he can actually tackle too, most punt returns for touchdowns feature a whiff tackle from the punter somewhere

[Superman]

Ya, IMO LB is the strength of the D. They are getting to the ball and making plays.

DL and S are weak spots IMO.

But Rome was not built in a day.. Indy will get er done.

If you do everything right, it usually takes two or three seasons to turnover a roster. We're overachieving right now, as the thread suggests. But I do think we're ahead of schedule, mostly because Grigson made good decisions in the draft and made some moves ahead of schedule, like the Davis trade. Even still, next offseason will allow us to address some holes (OL, CB, S, DL) in free agency, and stay true to Grigson's draft board and hopefully add a couple of playmakers.

Add to that the continued development of young guys like Hilton, Brazill, Allen, Fleener, Freeman, etc., not to mention Luck, and hopefully we'll be competing for a playoff spot next season. Then, in Year 3, I'll be looking for The Leap.

[Danny Darville]

I was speaking of our outside linebacking and it will be exploited in the playoffs...that is a major defensive weakness....we have improved stopping the inside running game with great free agent signings and switching to the 3-4 defense.

[Superman]

I was speaking of our outside linebacking and it will be exploited in the playoffs...that is a major defensive weakness....we have improved stopping the inside running game with great free agent signings and switching to the 3-4 defense.

Our outside backers have been just fine, though. Teams can stay away from our pass rush by completing quick passes, but that's more about what we're doing with our secondary than our linebackers.

[SteelCityColt]

Our outside backers have been just fine, though. Teams can stay away from our pass rush by completing quick passes, but that's more about what we're doing with our secondary than our linebackers.

I still can't see Freeney being here next year though, and with the pass rushing talent on the upcoming draft I would like us to pick up a OLB. Problem is we've got more pressing gaps to fill. Barwin would be a nice FA pickup but can't see the Texans letting him walk, especially to the Colts.

[Superman]

I still can't see Freeney being here next year though, and with the pass rushing talent on the upcoming draft I would like us to pick up a OLB. Problem is we've got more pressing gaps to fill. Barwin would be a nice FA pickup but can't see the Texans letting him walk, especially to the Colts.

I'd take Barwin, but I don't know what kind of money he'll want. I doubt Freeney will be here next year also, but I think we'll be okay at OLB, one way or the other. I like the way Grigson sticks to his board, and I expect him to do the same in the next draft. If we get an OLB, great, if not, he'll do something about it. We'll certainly have the cap space and the money.

The Texans only recourse to keep Barwin from coming to the Colts is to sign him themselves, and reports suggest they won't do that. If we want him, we'll have a fair shot. He's on my list of guys to watch next week.

[azcolt]

Excluding PM, Reggie and a handful of other players, they were pretty terrible on paper last year, too. Amazing what a franchise QB can do to cover up warts. No franchise in the past decade plus has relied so heavily on one guy to be a difference maker and we're seeing history repeated this year. In spite of a less than great passing efficiency stat, imagine where we'd be now with the same QB's as last year. I'd guess about 3-10 -- at best.

[John Dee]

The Texans have to keep D Brown OT before Barwin.. so if it comes to the frantag... I think Brown gets it.

Barwin would be nice at the right price. A lot of really good DL/OLB available this off season. Grigs will get some very capable help in here to go along with the boys.

[BleedingBlue]

Just to get your opinion, what is so easy about our schedule?

You are smart enough to know the answer to this question, but I'll take the bait anyway...

We are in arguably the worst division in the NFL (the AFC west could be considered).
We play a 2-11 and a 4-9 football team, twice.
The combined record of all the teams we have played is 67-86.
We played a total of 4 games against NFC teams.
Playing the Texans twice in 3 weeks at the end of the season - with the last game being on the last week - removes us from having to the face the most elite team on our schedule at full throttle at least once.

[Larry Horseman]

John D and Blazer both said it...coaching and thus situational football. Add in the shame of 2-14 and we got the 2012 Colts!