Football Outsider: Colts playoff pretenders
#1
Posted 26 November 2012 - 12:20 PM
http://insider.espn....ianapolis-colts
"As much as people talk about his football IQ, I think it's still underestimated. I've never met a guy like Andrew Luck at this stage of the game.”
-ESPN analyst Jon Gruden
#2
Posted 26 November 2012 - 12:26 PM
#3
Posted 26 November 2012 - 12:26 PM
Unless we show anything worth a competitive game against a potent offense (the kind like the Lions) ON THE ROAD, the kind you will run into in the playoffs, no one is going to take us seriously.
#4
Posted 26 November 2012 - 12:28 PM
#5
Posted 26 November 2012 - 12:31 PM
If we win 10, we're playoff caliber....
#6
Posted 26 November 2012 - 12:31 PM
i agree...dont wanna be a downer but the fact is everytime we play outside of LOS we suck.
We suck outside LOS so much that they were quoting a stat yesterday on SNF that made me puke. Outside the Giants who went 5 for their first 5 trips for TDs in the red zone yesterday, the Jets were the only other team that did it, vs the Colts.
Maybe, it is like that bad taste in your mouth "how on earth did we let the Jags steal a game from us, and how on earth did we let Jets go 5 for 5 TDs in the red zone against us when they have been putrid almost every game".
Arians said "youth is no longer an excuse" and hopefully, the young guns show me something at Detroit.
#7
Posted 26 November 2012 - 12:32 PM
#8
Posted 26 November 2012 - 12:32 PM
#9
Posted 26 November 2012 - 12:34 PM
#10
Posted 26 November 2012 - 12:36 PM
Vince Verhei says we are not playoff caliber and destined for a quick and early exit.
http://insider.espn....ianapolis-colts
Can't disagree with that. If we make the playoffs at all, that will be a tremendous accomplishment for this team in a rebuilding year - and will exceed 99% of the public's pre-season expectations!
#11
Posted 26 November 2012 - 12:37 PM
150-1 to reach the Super Bowl
he's really going out on a limb...
#12
Posted 26 November 2012 - 12:42 PM
#13
Posted 26 November 2012 - 12:46 PM
Football outsiders use complicated formulars for playing stats and are much more accurate than the lump sum yards the NFL uses.
However like any prediction nothing is written in stone.
Currently rthe colts are 23rd at .3% to make it to the AFC with 0% chance to win.
8.1 mean wins with 33% chance of getting WC
#14
Posted 26 November 2012 - 01:00 PM
It's interesting but it also gives the Steelers a better chance at making the playoffs in any fashion than the Colts, Giants, Seahawks, Bengals, or Bears.http://footballoutsi...ats/playoffodds
Football outsiders use complicated formulars for playing stats and are much more accurate than the lump sum yards the NFL uses.
However like any prediction nothing is written in stone.
Currently rthe colts are 23rd at .3% to make it to the AFC with 0% chance to win.
8.1 mean wins with 33% chance of getting WC
It also says we have a slightly better chance making the playoffs in any fashion than making the wildcard, lol.
Doesn't give any team other than division leaders a chance to win the wildcard, which is debatable either way.
#15
Posted 26 November 2012 - 01:04 PM
It's interesting but it also gives the Steelers a better chance at making the playoffs in any fashion than the Colts, Giants, Seahawks, Bengals, or Bears.
yeah..a chance. Chance being the keyword
#16
Posted 26 November 2012 - 01:05 PM
But a nearly 80% chance?yeah..a chance. Chance being the keyword
#17
Posted 26 November 2012 - 01:07 PM
#18
Posted 26 November 2012 - 01:08 PM
yea I saw that to talking bout we beat every team by 7 points or less they must didn't see second jags game lolStopped reading after the factual error in the second paragraph.
#19
Posted 26 November 2012 - 01:09 PM
#20
Posted 26 November 2012 - 01:09 PM
#21
Posted 26 November 2012 - 01:10 PM
manning and broncos or brady and pats both would be tough to winWell, considering that if we make the playoffs, our most likely wild card opponents are Peyton Manning and the Broncos.... Yeah, I don't see us winning that one....
#23
Posted 26 November 2012 - 01:13 PM
I think FO is great and the majority of his reasoning is on point if one is able to be objective about the Colts as a whole. Not being legit contenders does not undermine or insult anything the team has accomplished this year.
#24
Posted 26 November 2012 - 01:15 PM
Well, considering that if we make the playoffs, our most likely wild card opponents are Peyton Manning and the Broncos.... Yeah, I don't see us winning that one....
We wont play Denver..
Look at Baltimore's schedule...(Pitt, Cincy, NE, Denver. NYGs) Denver's going to be 12-4 or 13-3..
Baltimore's probably going to be 11-5 at best...
Our most likely playoff foe is Baltimore..... at the No. 4 seed..if we are 10-6 and the No. 5
#25
Posted 26 November 2012 - 01:24 PM
Well, considering that if we make the playoffs, our most likely wild card opponents are Peyton Manning and the Broncos.... Yeah, I don't see us winning that one....
Could be the Ravens or Patriots as well, all good home teams.
#26
Posted 26 November 2012 - 01:47 PM
#27
Posted 26 November 2012 - 01:55 PM
its not T.Y its T.watttttttttt WHAT DID T JUST DO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
#28
Posted 26 November 2012 - 01:56 PM
And beating green bay was wait let me guess, just 'dumb luck'.
Not because the colts had the talent or played better.
We played inspired. Reggie was double covered by Charles Woodson and Sam Shields/Tramont Williams (not sure which one was the other) and he still came up with the ball. That game was all Luck scrambling and Reggie playing out of the world. Those games happen. To me, that was offset by the Jags loss at home, our only loss at home to "I cant even bear to put his name as a starting QB" Mr.Gabbert, so the Packers' win was almost justice served.
Seahawks beat the Pats at home by 1, are they a better team? Probably not. Same issue, they struggle on the road too, happens with rookie QBs. It is never a case of who you play. It is when you play them.
But to me, we need to be able to put up such inspired performances more consistently. Right now, the Colts are playing with house money. No one gives them a chance, and they are making every game in a favorable schedule count. I will be honest with you, it is a fun ride
Like someone else said, they are like last year's Bengals team.
#29
Posted 26 November 2012 - 01:56 PM
"As much as people talk about his football IQ, I think it's still underestimated. I've never met a guy like Andrew Luck at this stage of the game.”
-ESPN analyst Jon Gruden
#30
Posted 26 November 2012 - 01:58 PM
#31
Posted 26 November 2012 - 02:01 PM
It's all just clap-trap.
We COULD beat the Ravens anywhere. They are average. We could beat the Texans anywhere (see them v the Jags?). We could not beat the Patriots in Foxboro. Fact.
Who cares. We were 2-14 last year.
#32
Posted 26 November 2012 - 02:09 PM
Because we aren't playoff caliber and we are destined for a quick and early exit if you look at all the problems we have, Then again there is a reason why games are played and not won or lost on paper. There is a 99.9 percent chance he is right though and thats if we get in, we are at the part of our schedule that will really show us what we are as a team, 2 games vs Houston, 1 vs Detroit on the road, vs KC but on the road
A .1 percent chance... really? I don't buy that, no matter who the opponent is. The Pats got beat by the Cardinals this year. Luck started that game off fairly hot. Our chances aren't good in the playoffs, but they are certainly better than .1%. Heck, one of the Giants superbowl wins was a long shot, when they finished the season 8-8.
To me, the any given Sunday thing applies. The Jags nearly beat the Texans. Some very poor teams have beaten much better teams.
The guy is likely right, we're not likely to go far... but we weren't considered a playoff team at the start of the season, so he is basically calling an orange orange. I would not be shocked to see us go one and done in the playoffs. I also wouldn't be shocked if we snuck a win or two in during the playoffs.
#33
Posted 26 November 2012 - 02:23 PM
That means that at a minimum, we've got to beat either HOU, BAL, DEN, or NE at their place. It's not far fetched to say we're going to have a hard time doing that.
Haters Gonna Hate.If [our] O-Line was a poker hand, I'd draw three. - Smonroe (9/26/12)
#34
Posted 26 November 2012 - 02:31 PM
Our main accomplishment is getting there, that is big enough in my mind.
One step and one year at a time. I will hope for the best but I won't get ahead of myself.
#35
Posted 26 November 2012 - 03:00 PM
My reply to this would be deleted and I would get banned, I abstain from commenting further.Vince Verhei says we are not playoff caliber and destined for a quick and early exit.
http://insider.espn....ianapolis-colts
Courage is being scared to death and saddling up anyway-John Wayne
#36
Posted 26 November 2012 - 03:01 PM
Dumb
#37
Posted 26 November 2012 - 03:07 PM
#38
Posted 26 November 2012 - 03:16 PM
In preseason, many predicted the Bills to win the East while the Colts were predicted to go 1-15. We just beat the Bills, yet some are upset we didn't do it with style points. Perspective.
#39
Posted 26 November 2012 - 03:20 PM
I think people are getting hung up on the wrong things. The question was whether or not we are likely to succeed in the playoffs.
That means that at a minimum, we've got to beat either HOU, BAL, DEN, or NE at their place. It's not far fetched to say we're going to have a hard time doing that.
Bingo, doesn't mean that it isn't going to happen, because baring a mini melt down, the Colts are going to play a wildcard game. I wouldn't bet a cent on us. Though I'd like to, but this team can win, but it isn't ripe yet.
#40
Posted 26 November 2012 - 03:23 PM
We're a Young Team. I didn't expect us to do well on the Road. I'm pretty sure everyone on here knows if we go to Denver, Peyton will Gladly show us the road back to Indy. It'd be a good game to see though, but just gotta face the Reality of it. Peyton would knock us out, but it'd be a Emotional Moment that he gets to see his old team again with it's new leader
If this happens, I would just put Reggie on defense and hope that Manning throws it to him out of habit.
















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