You asked about one other thing and I failed to address it. And that's Pagano getting hired after he leaves the Colts. I don't see it happening, but I suppose it might.
In Jan of 2016, when the rumor was Pags would be fired, we were all surprised that he got re-signed to a new 4-year deal. NFL.com reported that Irsay was close to firing Pagano but a number of owners told Irsay that if he did that, they were ready to offer Pags their HC spot. That they thought he was a good coach. So Irsay had a change of heart.
In Jan of 2016, I think an owner could stand before the media and tell fans that they have hired a HC whose 4-years at Indy were 11-5, 11-5, 11-5, going one round further each year in the playoffs and then going 8-8 in 2015 without Andrew Luck for 9 games. I think an owner could've easily sold that.
But now, if we fire Pags as I expect we will, I don't see an owner willing to stand up to introduce Pagano, whose last 3-years are 8-8, 8-8 and whatever we do this year... maybe 5-11, or at best, 6-10. I don't think that sells. Right or wrong, fair or unfair, I think that's the reality. The circumstances are very different.
Pags has said Indy would be his last coaching job. I don't know if he meant it, or if he meant last HC job, or even if he'd accept being a DC or just a position coach? Don't know. But, he's got two more years on his contract and suspect he's set financially. I don't see him doing media the way some former coaches so, that's not Chuck.
But I suspect his retirement would be very, very comfortable! (We should all be so lucky)